For those of us who love the math of elections, here’s a chance to post your predictions. Same grand prize as always: winner gets a free subscription to Village 14.
What do you think the spread is going to be in the two races?
and
What’s turnout going to be in raw numbers?
58-42 for Barash and Ranalli, mirroring the Northland vote.
Newtoner, they are running individually. They aren’t a ticket
Are you predicting that no one split votes?
I think Oliver will prevail
I think the Ward Two race is going to be a nail biter. I am hoping Lucas pulls it out
Is there a scenario for “too close”?
54-46 for Bryan (less than 500 votes for David)
51-49 for Ranalli
12,500 total voters.
But honestly, I could see all of that flip the other way. Special elections are like gambling on the coin flip at the Super Bowl. You know SOMEONE will win, but mostly it is a coin flip based on turn out.
I’ll be fine no matter how it turns out. And glad it is over!
@Claire: Yes, I think almost everyone will vote for either of the two pairs as a block You rarely see a lawn sign or hear someone talk about a candidate without mentioning their “running mate”.
Some historical context:
Latest comparable is 2004 special council election resulting in Vicki Danberg getting on council: 4463 voters or 9%.
Turnout in the last three non-mayoral municipal elections:
2015 11,054 20%
2011. 9,841 18%
2007. 8,800 17%
But/and…
I’m told that there were more than 7,000 mail-in ballots and early votes going into today. Depending on how many people voted today, we could see a higher turnout in this special election than in a regularly scheduled non-mayor municipal election.
Looks like people are a lot more invested than they were in 2004.
Based on the BLM signs loud and proud I would say Lucas is a shoe in to win. I voted for him and Oliver so did my neighbors.
Gail, a lot more folks figured out how to do mail in ballets. Hence my higher number. But you are making me regret it!