The Class Size and Enrollment Report will be presented at the School Committee meeting Monday January 28, 7 p.m. at the Ed Center. Presented annually, the report contains current year statistics and includes projections for future enrollment, including how many new students are predicted to enroll in the Newton Public Schools from any new building projects.
Newton Schools to present enrollment projections Monday
by Village 14 | Jan 27, 2019 | Schools | 9 comments
I heard they plan to eliminate tracking for math classes in middle school. Meaning all kids take the same math class. Can somebody confirm or deny?
I’m copying the post I just made to the January 23rd thread that raised the question of school overcrowding, as that thread has likely aged out:
“Following last night’s School Committee meeting I have something very interesting to add – the Powerpoint that served as an introduction to the discussion of the Enrollment Planning and Class Size Report:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/155IyXNorI3j8imiojBDd0SwHoY6IBGHs
It speaks directly to the enrollment impact of regional demographic trends vs. big Newton developments. The money slide is #8, which makes the following points:
• NPS has been working with a consultant on a 10-year enrollment forecast. This forecast indicates an enrollment increase of 165 students, or 0.7%.
• Projections include the impact of a potential 1,785 new apartments from 4 developments that include Riverside, Northland and two others.
• Without the students from these new apartments the 10-year forecast shows a small enrollment decline.
• The consultant and NPS are planning a comprehensive presentation to the School Committee and the City Council shortly.
This supports the point I made to Greg, that the impact on student enrollment from the many large residential complexes are essentially offset by the regional demographic trend of fewer students. This is why we do not anticipate building additional schools, but instead are focusing on the repair, enlargement, and replacement of some of our existing buildings.
Regards, Steve”
@Steve: The slide you reference is nice – but where is the back up data. 1,765 new apartments will only add an additional 175 kids to the system? Did the consultant explain why the Avalon project on Needham Street, with a mere 200+ apartments generated over 100 kids?
I’m sorry – 165 new potential students – not 175.
The repair, enlargement, and replacement of some of our existing buildings seems like a sensible solution to address the potential increase in enrollment. As long as capacity is increased appropriately (enlargement as opposed to modulars), then the overcrowding that exists in outdated school facilities shouldn’t be a problem in the future.
My guess is that Avalon opened at a time when the Boomers/gen x still had (and were having) children who were/are of school age. They’re now on their way to graduation.
Let’s also not forget that the Great Recession had a significant, lasting effect; even now, 10 years later, the birth rate is the lowest it’s been in 90 years. Couple that with the general tendencies to delay marriage and child birth, millennials having fewer children,and the high cost of living, that could be why Northland and similar development proposals may not be generating as many students as before. In another two decades, we could indeed be having a much different debate.
Of course, a big caveat is that we live in a place with a unique quality of life driven by our status as the winners of the new economy that may be more resistant to overall patterns than, say the Berkshires or the Cape. I look forward to seeing more analysis of the long term demographic trends.
@Ted Avalon on Needham St has had at least 98+ kids in NPS each year since 2012-13.
2012-13 101 kids
2013-14 101 kids
2014-15 98 kids
2015-16 106 kids
2016-17 102 kids
2017-18 108 kids, 57 elementary, 51 secondary
2018-19 102 kids44 Elem, 26 MS, 32 S
@NHM, I agree that long-term school planning is one thing Newton has not done well over the years. Certainly not in hindsight. I’m looking forward to seeing the full report.
My overall points about the future still stand. By the time Northland is built (in whatever form) the longer term trends for fewer students than before will be slowly taking place. Perhaps Newton is different, but we can’t assume that the future will be the same as the past.
I am a serious skeptic about decreasing enrollment when new housing units are being created. After some research I came across the information below which explains the trend I have been seeing.
The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) created a report in 2017 which intended to describe why increased affordable housing did not affect enrollment rate except in certain instances:
As a first step to explaining rapid enrollment growth in these districts, we found that they fall into two distinct clusters. Seven districts (Arlington, Belmont, Brookline, Cambridge, Lexington, Lincoln, and Natick) could be characterized as highly desirable from an educational perspective, with high standardized-test scores relative to the rest of the region. They have an average 75% proficiency rating on the 2013 3rd grade English Language Arts (ELA) MCAS7, markedly higher than the 67% region-wide average proficiency rate. These districts are also correspondingly expensive, with a 2016 median home sale value of $815,000, almost twice as much as the MAPC regional median sale value of $455,000. With a few exceptions, they are also highly accessible to employment both in Boston and along Route 128, and they feature compact neighborhoods and vibrant, walkable downtowns that are increasingly attractive to some younger families. (Pg4)
http://www.mapc.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/MAPC_HousingEnrollment_Final.pdf