Update — After reading Elmo’s comment, it occurred to me that there is a comparable election to look at: the 2013 preliminary, when then first-term Mayor Setti Warren faced a long-shot challenge from then City Councilor Ted-Hess Mahan. 

The comparison starts in 2009, when newcomer Warren ran second to State Representative Ruth Balser in a hotly contested preliminary with at least one other legitimate contender: then Alderman Ken Parker. The 2009 preliminary loos much like 2017, with then Councilors Fuller and Lennon as the front-runners, and then Councilor Sangiolo the legitimate contender. The turnout in 2009 was 15,866 and in 2017 was 14,294. Roughly comparable for similar dynamics. In 2013 the turnout was 6,154, a much bigger drop than the 10,853 for this 2021 preliminary. 

Takeaway 1: I was wrong on this year’s turnout. It isn’t even close to as bad as I wrote below. In fact, it is encouragingly good, and may be at least partially attributable to enthusiasm for Challenger Sangiolo.

Takeaway 2: Mayor Warren’s 4,265 is a much higher percentage (69.3%) of the vote total than Mayor Fuller’s, reflecting both well on Challenger Sangiolo’s campaign compared to Alderman Hess-Mahan’s and poorly on Mayor Fuller’s.

In the end, it boils down to the same conclusions: Challenger Sangiolo’s campaign did well, but much worse than she needed to do to be a credible threat for November. Mayor Fuller has to be disappointed by her relatively tepid support, particularly given the relatively high turnout compared to 2013. Challenger Sangiolo’s ant-development message, which is shared with a number of City Council candidates, didn’t play as well as it appeared it did in March.

What a thoroughly disappointing election. On all fronts. The numbers aren’t encouraging for anyone.

The unofficial vote total was 10,853, down about 25% from 2017 (14,294). There’s plenty to explain the drop-off. This race was a foregone conclusion, Mayor Ruthanne Fuller and challenger and former Councilor Amy Mah Sangiolo were always going to move on to the general election…and did so, handily. In 2017, there were three legitimate candidates — then Councilors Scott Lennon, Fuller, and Sangiolo — for two slots. Much more at stake to draw people to the polls in 2017. Add COVID in 2021. Still 25% is a big drop off. Not a great night for participatory democracy.

But, the biggest disappointment has to be Challenger Sangiolo’s. She earned 4247 (39.1%) votes to to Mayor Fuller’s 5926 (54.6%), a 1679 vote/15.5% spread. Challenger Sangiolo is not going to win in November. If she had a shot beating the incumbent mayor, it was going to take an enthusiasm advantage, which would have made itself visible in this low-turnout election. Whatever enthusiasm there is for Challenger Sangiolo, and I suspect her core is more enthusiastic than it was in 2017, it’s not broad enough. It would take a miracle to make up 15% in the general election. My bet is that the difference will be even greater in the general, closer to 25% (something like 60/35).

Election’s are zero-sum affairs, so bad news for Challenger Sangiolo is necessarily good news for Mayor Fuller. Mayor Fuller will keep her seat, so there’s that. But, she cannot be delighted with the results, especially compared to 2017. Then Councilor Fuller was top vote-getter in the 2017 preliminary, winning about 37% of the vote, with fellow Councilors Lennon and Sangiolo second and third with 33% and 25%, respectively. Despite the benefit of incumbency in 2021, Mayor Fuller barely split the Lennon vote. She actually received fewer additional votes in 2021 (+686) than Challenger Sangiolo did (+743).

The last two have been tough years to be mayor, but tonight’s results don’t seem like a ringing endorsement of Mayor Fuller’s leadership.

If this election (like the spring special election and the 2020 Northland special election) is another referendum on development, it’s tough to see this as a victory for the development skeptical slate of City Council candidates. Challenger Sangiolo has tried to make her pro-single-family, anti-developer policies a clear difference between her and Mayor Fuller. The city’s voter seemed to have shrugged. Can’t imagine how today’s results translate into victories for anti-development challengers in November.

So, I guess there is one group that can go to bed happy tonight: pro-housing candidates.