Update: Baker has shut schools for three weeks, closed restaurants and bars, and barred gatherings over 25 people. Good.
Mayor Fuller,
I saw pictures of the crowds in Cleveland Circle and in South Boston last night and watched Governor Baker’s appearance on WCVB this morning and it is clear that the Commonwealth is not doing enough in the face of the COVID-19 crisis.
I implore you to ask the governor, very publicly, to impose the tightest lockdown possible until we have passed the peak for COVID-19. We need to shut schools (except for necessary services to vulnerable communities), close bars and restaurants, impose a curfew, impose access controls in grocery stores (to enforce gaps), and take whatever other steps to mitigate the spread of the disease.
We know what is coming. A dear friend is a pulmonologist at Children’s Hospital. They are projecting to be overcapacity with beds and equipment by Friday. In five days. In five days, people are going to die or become much sicker (and suffer long-term health consequences), because the numbers will be greater than our health systems can handle.
What’s so troubling about the scene in Cleveland Circle is that it is not a Boston problem. The folks that were crowded together in the midst of a pandemic are going to have contact with people in Newton, in Brookline, across the state. The virus could care less about municipal borders.
Sadly, it does not appear that the governor is treating the crisis with sufficient urgency. I call on you as a respected leader in the region to demand that the governor step up and protect us all.
At this point, we cannot do too much.
Thank you.
Sean Roche
[address]
Why not the state allow voluntary permanent online public home schooling as a longer term solution coupled with saving great expense at public school facilities with fewer physically attending. Of course, school sports and social activities would continue at the physical schools..
This article can’t be serious. The mayor has to stop millennials from going to the bar? I guess that’s her job nowadays.
Sean, I’m sorry but this letter is an embarrassment.
Somebody has to do it! Why was there a long line of waiting customers, one close to the other, at Sully’s yesterday? One cop there could have enforced the distancing.
I am generously thinking that people are not stupid, just uninformed.
Yes, the mayor has to urge the governor to close down bars. People spreading COVID-19 are not just endangering themselves, but everyone else in the community. Even if you personally are low-risk (which doesn’t mean no-risk, and there’s growing evidence that survivors have lung damage), others you come in contact with may be high-risk or live with those who are.
At times like these, people have to all work together for the common good. The governor should be shutting things down immediately, and it’s the job of other community leaders to urge him to.
The Governor was once CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Healthcare. He has a Department of Public Health to advise him. I don’t think he needs a small-town mayor telling him to do what her constituent’s pulmonologist friend at Children’s Hospital says he should do. Curfews can be dangerous too.
You are all correct that the urgency is not being headed. however, to blame the Mayor or the Governor is just not fair. The issue is the one thing we are known for, the one thing we hold dear, that we embrace and love – Freedom. It is freedom that is getting in the way of taking Covid-19 seriously. In China when the government speaks, all fall in line, for better of for worse. In the case of a pandemic, its for the best. That is not the way our Democracy works and unfortunately it may have to get scary before everyone toes the line. Sad but true. There will be travel bans as well as more severe directives but it is up to all of us to care.
Until our Mayor shuts down all stores except for grocery, pharmacies… she is in no position to lecture others
Sign me up as in full agreement with Sean Roche. If that doesn’t convey the seriousness of this, I don’t know what will.
Here is my feedback to younger folks that want to go out to large groups: Give a call to your grandparents before you head out, because it is likely you are going to lose one in the next 4 months as a result of this type of behavior.
And it likely won’t be because they couldn’t be treated, but because they were too old to waste an available ventilator on.
I’ve shared the below on my other social channels, but will add here for those not connected to me. I’m not an epidemiologist or a viral expert, but my job has been watching exponential growth in biological systems for 30 years. I am speaking for myself and not my company.
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graphic: http://newtonwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/international_corona_virus_case_growthrate_13Mar2020.png
Here is a new trend of #coronavirus cases and deaths outside of China. As a caveat, Epidemiologists use more sophisticated models to forecast pandemic growth. Still, an exponential growth curve fits the data now, and until containment bends the curve, it approximates the near term risk we face.
On April 1st, the virus could be infecting 250,000 daily, with 12,500 streaming into US doctors for care. The US lags Italy, Iran, and South Korea, so it will likely get its share later, but the numbers are staggering. Further out, 15% of the world’s population could be infected by the end of next month, along with 50 million US residents.
The death toll could reach 49,000 globally by the end of the month, and with less certainty, 1.7 million in the US by the end of May.
The virus wins by spreading from one person to another every 4 days. If we can slow the spread down to less than one new infection per patient, it will die out. The New York Times has an excellent interactive simulator showing how interventions can impact outcomes.
You can share this with your friends on
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6644462121675476992/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10159329109595410&set=a.10150492803125410&type=3&theater¬if_t=feedback_reaction_generic¬if_id=1584055664618899
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/15/nation/walsh-declares-public-health-emergency-boston-announces-restrictions-bars-restaurants/
Sean, I agree with your letter. Seeing pictures of crowds of people at South Boston bars yesterday and this morning, it is clear that many people are either un- or misinformed or don’t care about the extreme danger they are creating for themselves and others. We are in a public health emergency and this irresponsible and reckless behavior endangering others cannot be allowed. Newton should declare its own public health emergency and enact strict social distancing regulations.
Well the governor of Ohio just did what Sean asked, all bars and sit-down restaurants are to close (I think tonight)…sooo.
I mean we do need to get far more serious about this…it is going to get back real quick…
Boston Mayor Martin J. Walsh on Sunday afternoon announced a public health emergency in the city, and is imposing restrictions on restaurants, bars, and clubs, including cutting capacity and restricting hours.
Boston bars and restaurants have to cut their capacity to 50 percent, make sure that no lines are formed outside, and will have to close by 11 p.m., Walsh said. Any establishments found in violation of the new restrictions will immediately be shut down for 30 days.
Totally agree with Sean and others calling for more action from our leaders. Neither our president nor our governor are doing enough. This is the calm before the storm. Saying “it’s not that bad now” is like being in Fort Lauderdale saying “it’s not that bad now” as a Category 5 hurricane heads straight for them. To those who say that will hurt small businesses, you know what else will hurt them? Massive increase in avoidable deaths of their customers, and economic freefall, worse than 2008 and for longer. Just read what is happening in Italy right now. Page after page of obituaries. It is heart breaking and surreal, and it’s coming here within days. More social distancing now means less tragedy later.
For a variety of reasons, Newton is uniquely positioned to take a leadership role in the battle against Coronavirus. To date, I’m extremely impressed with Mayor Fuller’s response. She did the right thing closing schools. Now, in order to protect the people of Newton, it is my opinion that the Mayor should take several other steps. First, Mayor Fuller should use her emergency powers to close all bars and restaurants in Newton until employee testing makes it possible to reopen. She should also close all movie theatres, playhouses and libraries to the degree any of those are still operating.
There were two things in particular Sean mention that I think would be very serious mistakes. First, a “curfew” would only make people’s lives more difficult at an extremely stressful time. It would be a huge infringement on civil liberties for no discernible benefit. Secondly, I am very opposed to anything that would restrict people’s access to grocery stores and pharmacies. The government’s role should be to guarantee the food supply remains uninterrupted. Same with pharmaceuticals. If we start restricting people’s access to food or give them reason to question the food supply, we will add widespread panic to an already bad situation.
The governor of Illinois announced that all bars and restaurants in the state will be closed to the public by the end of the business day on Monday.
NYT
I too think Sean’s request is right on, except for curfews and restricting grocery stores, for the reasons Mark Striar pointed out.
Asking the mayor of the city of Newton – right on Boston’s border and not as Michael Singer said, a small town mayor – to request action from the Governor isn’t a stretch. She was right there beside him in the photo when a state of emergency was declared.
I’m glad Mayor Walsh took steps to restrict numbers of people entering a confined place.
A note about our local restaurants – the ones able to stay open are doing various things to manage take out and delivery. Brewers Coalition has a deal when purchasing a gift card.
I agree with the thrust of Sean’s request to the Mayor and thank him for writing her. It does help prompt stronger statewide action by the Governor when he understands that local officials are willing to support restrictions on their citizens.
I also agree with Mike and Marti that a curfew is not advisable, for the reasons they mentioned. People do need to get outside for exercise and essential errands, and there is nothing to suggest that any particular hours would be more or less advisable, should a curfew be considered. Likewise, I fear unexpected consequences if you start to control access to grocery stores and pharmacies. I think foot traffic in those stores will start to self-regulate soon.
In complete agreement with Sean, Nathan, Emily, et al. I’d also suggest we follow the advice found in step 4 of this article, which has already been shared in other posts and reader comments here on Village 14 (https://medium.com/@ariadnelabs/social-distancing-this-is-not-a-snow-day-ac21d7fa78b4). Step 4 reads: “Consider asking grocery stores to queue people at the door in order to limit the number of people inside a store at any one time.” I’ve made two trips to grocery stores in the past week, and each one felt decidedly unsafe to me. Long lines of shoppers standing less than six feet apart from each other at the deli counter, in checkout stands, etc., could in no way be considered social distancing, nor could squeezing past other people in narrow aisles that are crowded with parked shopping carts, or past staffers who are unloading boxes and stocking the shelves, and so on.
Fuller did not make the call on schools. That is a fact. Their is a protocol followed before a decision can be made in a situation like this. Plenty of heads involved. Just like she didn’t make decision on lifting parking ban. Gets credit but didn’t make ultimate decision.
Newton closed schools for a week. Should be for two months. Schools are filled with germs and bacteria. Think about the desks, chairs, keyboards, railings, etc. My grand kids are in private school. Cleaner and better educ. Fuller would agree on this as she sent her kids private.
Finally, If I was a millennial I would be in a bar today celebrating St Pattys Day. Guinness all day.
Governor just announced and is finally doing the right thing!
A “ten strike” for Sean on this. I agree with everything he wrote except for a nighttime curfew. I see no problem if I decide to take a solitary night time walk that involves only leaving and returning to my home since I already do this with some regularity. What should be discouraged are side trips to places to mingle with people in any kind of situation where they could be spreading the virus to me or I could be spreading it to them. I’m not certain what the right mix is here, but the real challenge is to get people to realize how serious this crisis is and how vulnerable everyone is to feeling its brutal effects.
I’m with Bob on this – i.e. all but the curfew.
Everything else Sean mentioned is important. I don’t see any epidemiological value in a curfew though.
For every one to get through these coming weeks (months?) I think getting outside, in a responsible way – i.e. not mixing with other people, is one of the best things for all of our sanity and our general health.
It was a wonderful thing to get out walking in the woods on this beautiful day. It was good to see other people out to … and even better to yell across to them “What a perfect day for a pandemic”.
For all intents and purposes, access to supermarkets has been shut down for those at risk for a severe case of Covid-19 due to the crowds. Some sort of queueing system would allow everyone to shop safely.
For all intents and purposes, access to supermarkets has been shut down for those at high risk of severe disease due to the crowds. Some sort of queuing system would allow everyone to shop safely.
Governor Baker has just taken prudent steps to limit the exposure of residents of the Commonwealth to infection from Covid-19. Schools are closed until April 7, and restaurants, cafes, and bars are closed to sitting customers but open for take-out orders.
Supermarkets will be open, but gatherings of more than 25 are banned until further notice. In addition, the governor reminded citizens to keep their social distance as the surest way of slowing the spread of the disease.
I hate it when anything disrupts my regular routine, but what does that matter in light of the potential catastrophe here? On Friday morning I biked by the Waban Starbucks and stared in, curious at how business might be affected. The cafe was packed with people young and old, and we all know how long people linger there, plunking away on their laptops. Now that’s not social distancing!
We all need to raise the consciousness of those who refuse to embrace the gravity of the moment, even if it involves dragging them kicking and screaming into sensible behavior.
Excellent presentation by Gov. Baker. Worth watching here: https://youtu.be/fwQ7AaWPJ2E
Prevention is the most advantageous way to move through these precarious circumstances.
Stupidity & Selfishness are the bane of our society. You can’t cure either.
Hopefully their damage will be minimal.
The Coronavirus pandemic puts the existential threat of the climate crisis & the “high stakes” Northland project into their proper perspective doesn’t it?
If everything is a crisis, then nothing is a crisis. Just saying..,
There’s a satisfying leveling of the playing field when the clerk at the local stop & shop or CVS who would normally be treated rudely knows when, and if, new shipments of hand sanitizer, rubbing alcohol, or disinfectant wipes will come in, and you dont. Beyond the CVs, degrees, high salaries, and “power”jobs, we are really all kind of in the same boat at the end of the day arent we?
Just a little food for thought.
@ Sean
Unless your pulmonary friend has a name and wants to go on the record with his dire projections, I would refrain from the alarmism. It’s not helping anyone. You’re already in the dog house don’t push it.
What’s maybe not so obvious is that it doesn’t actually appear to be ultimately about prevention. It’s primarily about timing.
All of the graphs we’ve been seeing about “flattening the curve” are about slowing the infection rate so that it doesn’t happen all at one time. Rather than a short very big peak the aim is to crush it down to a much smaller longer peak, so that the medical systems will be able to handle the cases. The total number of case won’t be reduced dramatically.
This is important so that the serious cases can be treated effectively and lives can be saved.
If I’m reading all these graphs correctly, roughly the same number of people eventually get infected but the end result of their health outcomes is much better – since it will be spread over a longer period of time.
Social distancing has a lot of attention. Deservedly. We need to keep moving, though. What’s next? In my mind: 1. Testtesttest; 2. Isolate. This blog is a fantastic forum for keeping the ball rolling – but we also need leadership from City Hall. I have some practical experience with this sort of work; I have some ideas.
@Amy posted elsewhere about a local MD with a letter; will (s)he identify themselves? That seems a good starting point.
@Jerry — I think we are looking at 3 scenarios.
1. It is destined that we all will get this sooner or later, and we just try to spread it out so that there are ventilators and beds available for everyone when they do get sick. Italy is triaging and rationing ventilators and ICU space based on life expectancy now.
2. We slow it down enough to get protection for the remainder of the population from a vaccine a year or a year and a half from now.
3. We achieve what China did and nearly eradicate it. China has limited the (reported) infections thus far to 56 per million people. Italy on the other hand is 409 and climbing. The question is whether as a free society, and with virus distributed widely, we can aspire to that, or conversely do even better by alternative means. Only massively available testing and societal commitment will make that possible.
Now that many of the social distancing rules have been put in place, it would appear that free testing available to anyone with symptoms or suspected exposure is next. I personally do not know how we can help accomplish this “bottom up” but throwing this out to the people on this blog who are a lot smarter than I am and have relevant experience in this space. That said, trying to contact anyone in city or state government right now is going to be tricky. It was really scary to read that even recently, a patient needed to be in need of hospital care to get a test.
Test early, test often, test for free.
Jerry,
In the bigger picture, Americans don’t commonly subscribe to prevention. They are more inclined to go the treatment route. Say what you will, but this applies across the board and manifests in innumerable ways. It is a systemic problem that continues to plague the country.
Mayor Fuller said “Limit playdates”. She should have said “NO playdates”,
She should also have said: “Do NOT let your grandchildren visit; they can feel healthy but be carriers. Do you really want your grandchild to feel guilty for the rest of his/her life that she infected her grandmother?”
Since the State broadened testing criteria Friday, 26 cases have been identified. So, while not acknowledged, there’s still a bottleneck or many. This morning, my wife responded to Mayor Fuller’s email asking for action scaling up testing locally, and got this response:
“Testing is indeed important. Unfortunately Mayor Fuller and the City of Newton’s Health and Human Services Department has not [sic] access to tests or control over them.”
She wasn’t looking for a test, she was looking for leadership – the sort of leadership public health experts around the globe are demanding.
I don’t even know what to think of that response.