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As we offer most every year, here’s your chance to beat the best municipal election prognosticators with your keen political insight. Who’s going to win the contested races?
- Ward 1 ward councilor: Maria Scibelli-Greenberg (I) or Allan Ciccone
- Ward 2 ward councilor: Emily Norton (I) or Bryan Barash
- Ward 2 at-large (pick 2): Susan Albright (I), Jake Auchincloss (I), Tarik Lukas, or Jennifer Bentley
- Ward 3 ward councilor: Julia Malakie or Carolina Ventura
- Ward 3 at-large (pick 2): Andrea Kelley (I), Jim Cote (I), or Pam Wright
- Ward 5 ward councilor: Bill Humphrey or Kathy Winter (Rena Getz will not win)
- Ward 5 at-large (pick 2): Deb Crossley (I), Andreae Downs (I), or Paul Coletti
- Ward 6 ward councilor: Brenda Noel (I) or Lisa Gordon
- Ward 6 at-large (pick 2): Vicki Danberg (I), Greg Schwartz (I), or Alicia Bowman
That’s a lot of candidates!
First tie-breaker: top vote getter.
Second tie-breaker: closest race. Either the difference between the winner and runner-up in a ward race or the difference between the second and third in an at-large race. The difference between one and two or three and four in an at-large race don’t qualify.
Third tie-breaker: total votes cast for candidates in the Ward 2 ward councilor race.
As per tradition, the winner gets a free subscription to Village 14. The runner-up gets two subscriptions.
Not a prediction, but I can’t wait to see the outcome of the Ward 6 at-large race. Greg Schwartz has been endorsed by (some) anti-development groups in spite of his voting record and probably against his will. I hope it will not turn out to be the kiss of death for his candidacy.
And there’s of course the trio of school committee candidates and that article on the Jerusalem Post. I predict a sound defeat for all three.
Newtoner,
Councilor Schwartz could have declined the endorsements or otherwise put some distance between him and his endorsers. He did not (that I’m aware of). He may not have made his bed, but he’s certainly lying in it.
I’ll take a crack:
1 ward . Maria Scibelli-Greenberg
2 ward. Emily Norton
2 at large – Jake Auchincloss, Susan Albright
3 ward Julia Malakie
3 at large Andrea Kelley, Jim Cote
5 ward Bill Humphrey
5 at large Deb Crossley, Andreae Downs
6 ward Brenda Noel
6 at large Vicki Danberg, Alicia Bowman
top vote – Susan Albright, I’ll hedge with Jake Auchincloss
closest race – Bryan Barash- Emily Norton
total votes cast in ward 2 – I have no idea
Vote for most interesting component of this election:
* How many votes does Rena Getz get. I don’t beleive there’s any way she will come close to winning but I’d say she will definitely get a significant number of votes based on her highly motivated campaign.
Jerry,
What spelling error?
Great issue. I don’t think she’ll even get as many votes as she got in the preliminary.
My predictions. At-large races are in my predicted order of finish.
Ward 1 ward councilor: Maria Scibelli-Greenberg (I)
Ward 2 ward councilor: Bryan Barash
Ward 2 at-large: Susan Albright (I), Jake Auchincloss (I)
Ward 3 ward councilor: Carolina Ventura
Ward 3 at-large: Andrea Kelley (I), Jim Cote (I)
Ward 5 ward councilor: Bill Humphrey
Ward 5 at-large: Deb Crossley (I), Andreae Downs (I)
Ward 6 ward councilor: Brenda Noel (I)
Ward 6 at-large: Alicia Bowman, Vicki Danberg (I)
For those new to the blog, those predictions also match my preferences. This is the first year for which that has been 100% true. I feel pretty confident for all but three races. In reverse order of confidence: Ward 3 ward, Ward 2 ward, and Ward 5 ward.
Top vote getter: Alicia Bowman
Closest race: Ward 3 ward
Ward 2 vote count: 2532
Liberal Progressives will win city-wide, with the one exception being Jim Cote’s win.
(Fortunately, Newton is so blessed with its fantastic location and tremendous wealth, it can withstand all the liberal/progressive meddling for many years to come.)
Emily Norton survives a close race. Greg Schwartz looses Ward 6 but wins city-wide to retain his seat.
Jim Cote will win.
And Jim Epstein and I agree! On the Liberal Progressives winning that is. But you take your agreement when we can find it, right Jim? ;)
I think I agree with Sean’s predictions, except I’m not bold enough to predict 2,3,5 wards. I really have no idea. Ward 2 goes without explanation, Ward 3 has been such a NICE race that I’m sorry anyone has to lose, Ward 5 is muddled by the write-in campaign.
I’m just glad it is close to being over.
My predictions: Jake Auchincloss will be highest vote getter and one incumbent will lose.
Well, I got a lot wrong.
See the full results here.
I got three races wrong. I got the order wrong in two races where I got the winners right.
I predicted Alicia would be the top vote getter (councilors). She was 14 of 16. (But, she was among the 16. So, I’ll sleep well.)
Ward 6 at-large was the closest contest, followed closely (on raw votes, not percentage), by Ward 5 ward. My guess, Ward 2 ward, was third.
Andrea Kelley was the top vote getter with 8,174. Everyone’s expected #1 (and a multiple time past champion) Susan Albright was a surprising 7th.
The tally for the Ward 2 race was 2720. I guessed 2532 and was the closest of all who guessed.
Jerry crushed it. He was off on only Ward 3 at-large. He also missed on the closest race and passed on top vote-getter.
Proving once again that dumb luck and random guesses carry the day
Andrea Kelley as the top vote getter was an unexpected surprise. She’s just ending her first term so it’s not about long term incumbency. I was holding a sign for her this morning so I’m definitely a fan but I’m a bit baffled how she ended up on top. Maybe she’s just that good.
Jerry,
Race (as in political) dynamics, I suspect. Closely contested race, increases total votes in the particular race. Big distinction between Andrea and her opponents, which means probably a lot of Andrea/Pam, Andrea/Jim, and Andrea bullet votes. Apparently, not a ton of Pam/Jim votes.
I didn’t predict it, but, upon reflection, not a huge surprise. More of a surprise that Vicki Danberg didn’t do a little better. In Ward 6, lots of votes. Wouldn’t expect a lot of Alicia Bowman/Greg Schwartz votes. So, Vicki getting only 7,460 votes suggests a ton of bullet voting for Alicia and Greg. Or, that I’m totally wrong about Bowman/Schwartz votes.
Looks like may have been a lot of bullet voting for Andrea – check out the number of Undervotes in Ward 3 At Large. And it may have resulted in some unintended consequences…
This contest is yet another poster child for Ranked Choice Voting.