As we wind down to polls closing, there are going to be broader winners and losers than just among the three candidates. With the sharp distinction between Rena Getz on one side and Bill Humphrey and, to a lesser extent, Kathy Winters on the other, this can fairly be considered a referendum on zoning and development. Either the pro- and anti-development forces are going to be able to claim an early victory. There is no other issue on which there’s meaningful difference among the three.

If the anti-development forces think that they’ve got most of the city on their side, they should expect a very strong showing from Candidate Getz. If Candidate Getz can’t win in Ward 5, with Northland under active consideration, then the antis have been overstating how much they represent the mood of the people.

If Candidate Getz is first or a strong second, that would be a setback for the pros. Third or even a weak second should be a sign that pro-development candidates are in a strong position for November’s general election. It seems unlikely that a second-place Candidate Getz would pick up the votes from a third-place Candidate Winters or Humphrey.

If I’m a developer, I’m watching this race very carefully and adjusting my negotiating position accordingly.

Hit me. What do I have wrong in this analysis?