This Sunday, the Newton Democratic City Committee will be holding its caucus at Newton South High School from 2-6 p.m. The main item on the agenda will be the election of delegates to the state Democratic Party convention in June in Worcester who will be pledged to support one of their party’s candidates for governor. All registered Newton Democrats can participate on Sunday or even run as a delegate.
While Newton Dems would perhaps be expected to turn out in large numbers for former Mayor Setti Warren, there are two other declared Dems in the running: Jay Gonzalez, a former State Secretary of Administration and Finance under Deval Patrick and Bob Massie, who previously ran for Lieutenant Governor and U.S. Senate. I haven’t encountered a lot of Massie support in Newton but a number of Newton Dems, including some of our elected or formerly elected leaders who served while Warren was mayor, have lined up for Gonzalez.
Do you have a favorite in this contest? Are you planning on attending Sunday’s caucus and even running as a delegate (go here to see how many delegates by gender will be elected in each ward)? And would it look bad for Warren if he doesn’t pick up all of Newton’s convention delegates?
Give me a break. City Dems can’t agree that today is Friday.
The photos of all three candidates should be included. Choosing one implies that you’re pushing one over the other two. Yes, it’s your blog, but c’mon Greg. There’s a third candidate out there as well. i suspect his supporters aren’t thrilled that you’re highlighting one candidate.
Jane. I’ve changed the photo. But I have no skin in this game. There was no hidden agenda. I’m not even a member of any political party, organized or otherwise.
You’re a Republican, Greg. Unless you unenrolled?
Gonzalez!!
Beginning at 2 PM tomorrow, a group of us will be manning a booth for OUR REVOLUTION NEWTON. This is a local chapter of a 50 State grassroots organization that seeks to build on the momentum from Bernie Sanders’ 2016 Presidential campaign within the Democratic Party. Come by and learn some of our plans and share with us what local and state issues you think we should be addressing. We hope you may want to join our effort.
I’m proud to be running as a delegate supporting Setti Warren.
JGo
Last month I had the opportunity to hear the 3 Dem. gubernatorial candidates speak at a forum in Brookline. It was my first exposure to both Massie and Gonzalez and both were very impressive candidates. To me, Gonzalez was a a breath of fresh air—really smart, experienced, deep on the issues, progressive and personable. While all 3 are good candidates, I’m looking forward to attending my 1st Democratic Caucus tomorrow and running as a delegate to support Jay Gonzalez.
For anyone attending or thinking about it… We are glad that Congressman Joe Kennedy, State Auditor Suzanne Bump, Mayor Ruthanne Fuller and candidates for Governor, Lt. Governor and more will be participating. Should be a great day. All are welcome to attend and anyone registered to vote as a Democrat before the caucus begins may participate. Newcomers encouraged!
can independents show up??
Why would any Newton resident support a mayor who usee his time here as a stepping stone. His flip flop (homeless shelter) at the request of wealthy Waban donors should be reason enough….
On the contrary, Bugek. I’m grateful that Setti Warren started his political career in Newton.
Why would someone support someone who opposed the will of the people who have been asking for something for over 40 years?
Someone who has supported real estate development and developers ( it’s called Trumpism ), the way he has, doesn’t deserve the support of the constituents he undercut throughout his tenure here.
When and how did he provide any leadership for or protection of the property owning, residential taxpayers of Newton?
Trump is alive and well in Newton in the form of Robert Korff, Northland Develpoment, Scott Oran and numerous other non contributors to our way of life .
Their motives are all the same . $$$$$
Support Setti Warren ???$$$ Follow the money .
Setti won 63 of the 84 Newton delegates, which is somewhere around 75%. Considering he won re-election as Mayor with about 70% of the vote (against another Democrat), it would seem that his standing has improved here in Newton and that he did rather well on Sunday.
Geeze Bill. Even in this era of non-stop spin, it’s pretty goofy to compare the results of a mayoral election with the caucus. Just sayin’
Actually, getting 75 percent of the delegates from your hometown is a good number in a lot of ways. It shows that you got a lot of stuff right. It also shows you had to say no to some other people, and make some tough choices, for which some people will just not forgive you. There are a lot of long memories in Newton, but hopefully most people are looking ahead and not backwards. The other thing is that both Massie and Gonzalez are legitimate, accomplished candidates. I talked to a lot of their supporters, who think very highly of them. It would be just lazy political reporting to assume that a vote for Massie or Gonzalez in Newton was a protest vote against Warren. (hello, POLITICO).
Greg: Politico drew attention to the caucus results as an indicator of support. As caucuses and election results both reflect support based on voting exercises, I would agree that each mechanism reflects a measure of support at a state in time. It’s not all that different than making an observation from poll results drawn from one party.
@Bill: I’m not trying to take anything away from Setti Warren’s results. But why not just go the route Ralph Ranelli (and Politico) did and point out it was a good showing, rather than say “gee these results show that Setti Warren is even more popular now than when he ran against Ted Hess-Mahan.” That’s just a foolish, meaningless and unnecessary spin.
I’m not surprised that a Setti won 75% of the delegates on his home turf. Anyone know how he’s faring in other parts of the state?
Ridiculous
Greg: I will try this one last time. The outcome of interest is the Mayor’s support level among Newton Democrats. No? The means of measurement available to us are election results. The last two events to provide measured outcomes were the Mayor’s re-election and now, the caucuses. These are called data points, the only two that we have to work with. And my point, if you read it, is that it would “seem” that Setti may have gained more support since the re-election. The support for my argument – not spin; my argument — for this would be the two said data points.
I may be right. I may be wrong. Either way, your counter “argument” is to restate your opinion, which as far as I can tell is supported by the fact that you spoke to a few people who support someone else. So, unless you have some data to further enlighten us…
Have a nice day.
@Bill: I will try again. Setti Warren is popular in Newton. I like him. You like him. Lots of people like him. (OK, Tom doesn’t like him). He did very well at the Newton caucus.
Is he “more popular” now than he was five years ago when he ran against Ted Hess-Mahan (who many people in Newton also like)? There’s no way comparing a Democratic Caucus results to a city wide election answers that. And it’s goofy to even bring it up.
I am having a nice day.
@Bill Brandel – Yes two data points – an apple and an orange.
It sound like it was a good day and outcome for Setti Warren,.
Greg: Glad you are having a nice day. Let’s reframe the argument. I will toss my suggestion that this data may indicate that the Mayor’s support has increased, as it is not the larger point.
The question going into the Newton caucuses was whether the Mayor continues to retain strong support. That question requires two sets of data to explore it: Before and After. Clearly, the caucuses are “after.” So, what is “before?” We do not have other caucuses to use as a comparison. However, we do have 2013 election results. Are these a valid proxy for comparison? Let us consider:
– In each instance, the subject is the same (Setti Warren)
– The measurement instrument is based on voting (as opposed to polled opinion)
– The population is voters
– These voters largely vote Democratic
– The venue is Newton
So, while not exactly the same, each data set does provide insight into the level of support that the Mayor would receive from (mostly Democratic) voters in Newton. And acknowledging both the strengths and limitations of comparison, the results are highly consistent: The Mayor enjoyed a support level from 70-75%.
The comparison is not perfect. However, each exercise and outcome measures a support level, which is the question of interest. So, I would argue that in a world where we have to work with what data we have, these results are not so dissimilar that they should be simply ignored.
Greg- lolol
Bill, are you assuming that the 84 democrats that voted in the caucus is representative of the city? You can compare the 84 caucus democrats to the 10,000 voters in the city? Not buying it.
He had a predictable day in his hometown. No big deal.
Tom: Clearly, the election results in 2013 are a superior indicator of public support for November, 2013, as it represents the actual voting population. And no, 84 Democrats do not represent all of those voters.
Again, the question posed was: Has the Mayor retained his support level in Newton? To attempt to answer that, empirically, you have to assess his support level then (whenever that was) to now. Because there is no other empirical data available to gauge public sentiment, we have two separate results to work with (2013 results; 2018 caucus results). What is striking is the similarity in support level. No, methodologically, it’s not a perfect comparison. But each measure, limitations noted, address the question. So, to that end, I agree with you that he had a predictable day: His support level *seems* to be in the 70-75% level. I don’t think this is that controversial.
Here is a question: In a City like Newton, what does 75% of Democrats in a caucus actually represent?
@Bill Brandel: Answer: It represents 75% of the Democratic caucus members who voted that day. Beyond that there’s not much to say since the caucus members ultimately represent themselves.
Congrats to Setti Warren for the good showing.