Updated with final numbers.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that it’s all over for tastefully named Republican house candidate Sean Bielat. With both competing in contested primaries, Democrat nominee Joe Kennedy III tallied 35,318 36,388 votes to Bielat’s 13,844 14,784. Each thumped his two primary opponents (all under 2,600 2,750 votes). Yes, Bielat’s numbers will go up by more than Kennedy’s as all precincts report. (Got that wrong.) And, they were separate races.
But, with that base of support, Kennedy remains the prohibitive favorite to succeed Barney Frank.
In all fairness, there was only one contested race on that ballot (at least in my ward) and it was clear who had name recognition. Independents who respect bright people offering a choice largely would take the larger ballot. (No way would I give Mr Bielat a chance but he did do a civil campaign against the Bear — and this Commonwealth is getting more corrupt every year because of lack of choices)
Really Sean? How can you possibly look at the results of this pitiful, low-turn out primary and suggest that it tells us anything, other than it was a pitiful, low-turn out primary?
That’s not to suggest I don’t think Kennedy will win. He’ll be win because of name recognition, a huge media buy and because there will be a very large turnout in November driven by the presidential contest. (Plus Bielat has problems explaining his employment history and filing campaign finance reports.)
But the primary numbers tell us nothing. Zilch.
I’m curious — looking forward, how many times will a Jewish Holiday fall on the traditional primary date? At some point, this swing date will be very meaningful (Off topic, sorry)
In 2010, Frank beat Bielat by 117,010 t0 90,285 — a little less than 27,000 votes. In yesterday’s “pitiful” primary, Kennedy III managed to round up just over 20,000 more votes than the tastefully named Bielat.
You just cannot ignore that base of support, especially when, as is becoming increasingly clear, there aren’t that many swing votes out there. Most independents vote consistently one way or another. (If swing votes matter, why do you think Mitt Romney doesn’t swing to the middle?) The new political wisdom: you gotta get the base out.
Base to Bielat: meh.
If we get to the point where a dozen felons have run the House will it then be time to respect opposing views and not get gaga over a nostalgic hairdo? What part of being a Democrat tells us to reject choices and pile on?
Am I the only one who doesn’t understand what “tastefully named” Sean Bielat means?
I think it’s a “sean” reference
“Kennedy remains the prohibitive favorite to succeed Barney Frank.”
I personally find that unsettling.
The numbers for Sean Bielat are tough. Statewide, Democrats outnumber Republicans almost 4-1, with 50% of all other voters registered as unenrolled or other. He was outpolled yesterday by a little less than 3-1 by Kennedy. I suspect the turnout in the Republican primary was higher than in the Democratic primary because there were at least 2 credible candidates running in the GOP race, Bielat and Childs. Kennedy was running against a virtual unknown (albeit a very nice man from Newton) and the dining room table lady with the Hitler/Obama posters. If he had had stronger competition I think the Democratic turnout would have been higher.
Unenrolled voters can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary and the statewide numbers may vary somewhat from the 4th Congressional District, which supposedly became a little more conservative after redistricting, but it includes densely populated liberal strongholds like Brookline and Newton, as well as Wellesley and Needham. Doing a little arithmetic (my new favorite word, thanks to Bill Clinton), it looks like Bielat would need to capture all of his base, peel off a lot of Democrats and grab the lion’s share of unenrolled voters to win. I think he will capture his entire base, but is not going to be able get enough Democrats and unenrolled voters to win, especially in a presidential election year which usually gets a high turnout. In other words, Joe Kennedy would almost have to be caught in flagrante delicto with a barnyard animal to lose.
With every script, there’s a climax. Here we have an offspring of one of our most well-known of all imperfect families. What has been his driving record? What were his grades? Has he kept his pants on appropriately? The potential of an explosive climax should be on high alert (if Bielat has any ability to do his type of digging).