Who’s going to win which contested races?
Who’s going to get the most votes in the at-large councilor races?
What will the percentage split be in the mayoral race?
Go.
Here are the contested races and candidates:
Mayor
- Ruthanne Fuller (I)
- Amy Mah Sangiolo
At-large Ward 1
- Alison Leary (I)
- John Oliver (I)
- Al Ciccone
At-large Ward 3
- Andrea Kelley (I)
- Pam Wright (I)
- Meryl Kessler
At-large Ward 5
- Deb Crossley (I)
- Andreae Downs (I)
- Rena Getz
At-large Ward 6
- Vicki Danberg (I)
- Alicia Bowman (I)
- Lisa Gordon
Ward Ward 1
- Maria Scibelli Greenberg (I)
- Kevin Riffe
Ward Ward 3
- Julia Malakie (I)
- Jim Cote
Ward Ward 5
- Bill Humphrey (I)
- Debra Waller
Ward Ward 6
- Brenda Noel (I)
- Barry Bergman
School Committee Ward 6
- Shawn Fitzgibbons
- Paul Levy
School Committee Ward 7
- Kathy Shields (I)
- Valerie Pontiff
“What’s the prediction for the fight?
My prediction….Pain.”
+1 for the @Fig Rocky III callout.
My predictions:
Mayor: Ruthanne Fuller (by a nose)
At-large Ward 1: Alison Leary, John Oliver
At-large Ward 3: Andrea Kelley, Pam Wright
At-large Ward 5: Deb Crossley, Rena Getz
At-large Ward 6: Vicki Danberg, Alicia Bowman
Ward Ward 1: Kevin Riffe
Ward Ward 3: Jim Cote
Ward Ward 5: Bill Humphrey
Ward Ward 6: Brenda Noel
School Committee Ward 6: Shawn Fitzgibbons
School Committee Ward 7: Kathy Shields
I have absolutely no idea who is going to win any of the down ballot contests. Just one observation. Almost everyone counted Amy Sangiolo out after the preliminary election results, but again I wasn’t sure. I fully expected the Mayor to get close to 60 percent of the vote in the preliminary because she had a built in and solid base of support while Amy did not. Amy’s only shot was to bring in voters who either didn’t vote in the preliminary or who were lukewarm in their support for Ruth Anne. My sense is that she has come on strong in the closing two weeks of this campaign, but I have no idea if it is enough to catch the Mayor. Still, she has run a fantastically good campaign.
Thank you Chuck. I certainly do pity the fool who tries to predict this particular election!
This isn’t a prediction, but I meant to say this elsewhere and Bob reminded me, so here goes:
Win or lose, I think Amy has run a fantastic race too. I thought the zoom meetings were great, even if I didn’t agree with everything the experts said. She came across as human and approachable. And in a world filled with angry people, she never made that part of her platform. And considering some of the tactics seen this week in city council races, I think it is worth calling out good behavior too.
Also, she had some great people pushing her message online. Again, I didn’t always agree with them, but they tried to listen as well. Lauren Berman especially (I know there were others, but I don’t remember all the names, my apologies).
I have no idea if she will win or lose, and I know it is hard to knock off an incumbent. But well done either way.
My predictions: (except for school committee because who the hell knows)
Mayor: Ruthanne Fuller (very close in the end)
At-large Ward 1: Alison Leary, John Oliver
At-large Ward 3: Andrea Kelley, Meryl Kessler
At-large Ward 5: Deb Crossley, Andreae Downs
At-large Ward 6: Vicki Danberg, Alicia Bowman
Ward Ward 1: Kevin Riffe
Ward Ward 3: Jim Cote
Ward Ward 5: Bill Humphrey
Ward Ward 6: Brenda Noel
Mayor: Ruthanne Fuller
Incumbents, except for:
* Jim Cote
Both Ward 3 races and the Ward 1 ward councilor race will be tight. (No great insight there.) The rest will not be tight (> 5 percentage points difference).
Andrea Kelley will be the top council vote-getter. (Lisle Baker will be the lowest of the winners, possibly of all council candidates.)
Fuller/Sangiolo 58/42.
It looks like I’m going to get the top council vote-getter completely wrong, and I should have picked better. The top vote-getter isn’t going to come out of a tight contested race, but one with the weakest challenger. It’ll be Alison Leary or John Oliver.
Stupid mistake.
Right now it’s all a mystery, since the website seems to have crashed.
Wow, the power of incumbency! Holy cow.
So disappointed, I can’t believe anyone actually thinks the current mayor has done a good job, so tired of the old folks in this town.
Was hoping I’d be wrong about the mayoral election. Four more years of Fuller is a tough pill for me to follow. And she could run again and again.
Boy, was I off base about Cote and Riffe! I felt like there was a lot of enthusiasm for those guys, but I guess it wasn’t enough.
MMQC:
Basically my conclusions are that incumbency matters, signs DON’T matter at all, and online enthusiasm is terrific but doesn’t bring the votes to the booth.
But hey, folks voted for a do over. Same folks all round.
Fig,
It wasn’t just that incumbents won, some incumbents really solidified their positions.
Bill Humphrey, arguably, won in 2019 because Rena Getz pulled votes away from Kathy Winters. Bill nearly doubled up Debra Waller.
Alicia Bowman barely won in 2019, triggering a recount. Looks like she is going to be the highest vote-getter in her race, with both her and Vicki Danberg over 1,000 votes clear of Lisa Gordon, with only Ward 8 not reporting.
Pam Wright was second to Andrea Kelley in 2019, by almost 2,000 votes. She’s leading Andrea by 400 votes with Ward 8 votes still out, but that lead won’t substantially change.
And, it looks like John Oliver is going to be the top vote-getter in the at-large races.
I think it gives all four soon-to-be-second-termers more license. It also shows that, as folks are fond of pointing out on this blog, candidates build slates, but voters don’t vote slates.
While I certainly had my preferred mayoral candidate, I would not have been unhappy with either outcome. I think there are things Mayor Fuller did well and things where she didn’t, but I also think that this was a very difficult time to be mayor – especially for a first term. Both Amy and Ruthanne were very good City Councilors, and both have worked hard for our city for many years.
As Greg and Ted pointed out on NewTV, theirs was an incredibly civil, issue-focused race – and that’s a credit to both women. We saw other races that did not stay civil, especially among the supporters. I’m sure we’ll be still seeing a lot of Amy, which is good for Newton.
@fignewton, amazing that every incumbent seems likely to win, despite the anger that they have faced on social media.
What gives with Ward 8?
Sean, agree 100%.
I’ll add one more. Special Elections aren’t the same animal as a full election.
A special thank you to everyone who ran. I was very impressed by some of the new candidates and hope they run again. And I hope Susan Albright repeats as council president, if she wants the job.
And again, Amy ran a great race.
I second Fig’s thank you to the candidates. My biggest disappointment was that there were open School Committee seats where there was only one candidate. I’m not sure what that says, but at a time when people are unhappy with many things going on with the schools it’s worrisome when you can’t find two people in a ward who want to have a say in fixing things.
Maybe we need a separate thread on election results overall for discussion tomorrow. Just a thought.
Fig pudding,
Already in the works and now posted.
People citing violations of the law should cite the law. Or perhaps spend 60 seconds with OCPF to find out they are incorrect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rfp37-_FRf8&t=9s