Politico reports today that Mayor Ruthanne Fuller has a 71% job approval rating, according to a poll commissioned by her reelection campaign.
From Politico:
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: NEWTON VOTERS APPROVE OF MAYOR’S COVID RESPONSE — Newton Mayor Ruthanne Fuller received high marks for her handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a poll commissioned by her reelection campaign. Fuller is up for reelection this fall after winning a narrow victory in 2017.
Fuller has a 71 percent approval rating, and that number increases among voters who identify as progressive or politically active, according to a memo from her campaign. Sixty-eight percent of Newton residents think the city is heading in the right direction. The Beacon Research poll was conducted in early February and surveyed 404 registered voters by phone. It has a 5 percent margin of error.
This poll was commissioned by her campaign and the report is very skimpy on the statistical details. Pretty much a piece of ****. That said, I do think she is popular, but certainly not 71% popular.
It’s a healthy reality check.
When you spend way too much time on Village14, Facebook Newton groups, NextDoor, and community list-serves as I do, you can easily let all the loud cranky voices convince you that the entire city is wildly unhappy … rather than that you’ve just found a way to tune in to our community’s most loud cranky voices.
I don’t buy this. Like Newtoner said, the poll is flawed to begin with.
I’ll chime in with what I see anecdotally and in response to Jerry. While I certainly spend time on V14 and FB groups, I also talk to my friends offline about lots of topics, including local politics. I know a lot of people and the majority of the people I know are unhappy with Fuller. I live in a neighborhood that went strongly Lennon and even a handful of my friends that liked Fuller a few years ago have grown to dislike her. 71% is very high.
Since this poll was commissioned by her campaign, my guess is it is to discourage people from running.
Newton Democracy Survey, done a few months earlier has a very different number.
https://www.newtonvotes.org/survey-results
47% positive, 53% negative.
The Newton Democracy survey was done just before the Zoning & Planning Committee retreated on its very unpopular Zoning Redesign of Residential districts and the elimination of Single Family zoning.
The Newton Democracy poll is likely biased in the other direction, but probably closer to the truth.
I tend to be an observer here, but do have to say that I had similar qualms initially (despite my support for the Mayor, who I think has done a fine job over the past four years) . Although, a quick google of Beacon Research (the firm that conducted the poll) shows they are the lead polling firm for Elizabeth Warren, Maura Healey, Tom Steyer’s presidential run, and are the Democratic side of the Fox News poll and hold an A rating from FiveThirtyEight. Agree/Disagree with the results how you feel, but I strongly doubt this poll is “flawed” or a “piece of ****”.
I don’t know any people who have children in NPS who think Fuller has done a good job.
What was the methodology behind the Newton Democracy Survey?
83% of respondents saying they plan to vote raises some eyebrows given that turnout will be nowhere near that number.
Either residents who plan to vote are very bad at actually following through, or the sample of respondents is skewed in some way.
This poll is an obvious ploy to scare off anybody from running. 71% is just low enough not to be dismissed as akin to the work of Putin’s apparatchiks. They probably just polled her neighbors in Chestnut Hill that send their kids to private schools.
Simon, the Newton Democracy Survey is interesting, but it says it was phone and web based. It also has a lot of weird points within it, which makes me think the folks who participated where really a minor subset of Newton. Can you speak to what methodology was used or the margin of error? Could anyone participate on the web? If you are going to put that poll out to public, it would be good to give us more information so we can tell if it is complete nonsense or not.
For the record, Mayor Fuller’s polling firm is legit. Biased a bit like all internal polls, but not biased 20% in my view. But a true polling firm, with a reputation and standards. Of course the mayor is using it to freeze the field. That’s just politics.
Village14 is not the wider community. I also think if schools are back in session in the fall and life is back to normal, folks will vote to reward that. And I say that as someone who is frustrated beyond belief these days.
Is it April Fools Day already ?
Seriously i also don’t know any Newton Parent who feels she has done a good job. Maybe the people polled were those who take her newsletters at face value and have not dug any deeper. It is not just the fact that the kids were not in school so long. It is the leadership and decision making flaws that were revealed in the process. The unwillingness to take advantage of world class experts who were willing to help. The lack of accountability and urgency. The mantra of everyone is working so hard and that everything is great in the schools. How do you learn from mistakes if you do not admit that they occurred.
Waiting for the Special Election to be completed so candidates for Mayor will announce their runs. Run Candidates, run!,
@Fig
We used PMI – robocalls.com. 1136 people picked up, with another 300 doing the website survey. Below is a statement from PMI. We went over 4 days, and left a message on the final day directing people to the online survey.
PMI Methodology: IVR Method only – Each respondent will hear the same
message and in the same voice. We randomly call voters from a file provided by
the client or PMI. PMI works with the client on the proper wording of the survey.
We randomly call landlines at various times and over a three day period (the
client can choose the days and times if they wish). We use various caller ID
numbers in order to obtain more responses. During the survey process, PMI will
monitor the responses to all questions and if we determine that a certain
category does not have enough responses for an accurate sample (to a specific
question, “e.g.”, age/gender and party – as can happen in small voter files) we will
target that specific demographic and call that portion of the file and try to obtain a
better sample of that specific demographic.
The survey will have a + – 4% margin of error.
Run Scott Lennon, run!
I am shocked by this–her performance during Covid has been horrible. She didn’t help the restaurants and she failed to lead with regard to schools. I wish that every Newton voter was required to watch a school committee meeting before voting for mayor. Her management of the school administration is an utter failure, and her performance at the school committee meetings is embarrassing. Let’s hope some opponents step up to provide us with an alternative vision of how this city can be run before the failure of our schools starts to affect property values.
Simon-” IVR Method only – Each respondent will hear the same
message and in the same voice. We randomly call voters from a file provided by
the client or PMI”
Did Newton Democracy provide the client file to PMI? 81% of respondents indicating that they plan to vote in a special election raises eyebrows. I could see it for a presidential or mayoral election. For a special election, that outside of blogs, is not in the forefront of the average voter’s eyes, it seems dubious.
WHAT???? Is this for real??????? As a parent of a public school child, and frequent listener of the NPS School Committee meetings, I am shocked. Often, she is seen, multi taking during School Committee Meetings, and then ASKS a question that has already been asked and answered (this has happened more than once).
David Fleishman has an advisory group for him, but there is no advisory group for NPS.
When did Newton start working on the ventilation system? Well into the fall. AFTER other “peer” districts were nearly complete.
Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t commercial construction allowed PRIOR to residential construction????? Residents who were living through a pandemic and a home renovation. But let the commercial construction start first.
I am not a Monday Morning Quarterback, but I don’t think Fuller has done a great job, but I don’t think Lennon could have done any better.
I will state, I did watch the interview she did with Rochelle Walensky on Community TV early in the pandemic, and I give her kudos for that.
Her newsletters have improved during the pandemic. (My least favorite one was when she had a PPPS, listing how many people DIED that week of Covid. That was heartless.) But I look forward to the newsletter.
71%???? Huh. I wasn’t called. I haven’t heard of any of my neighbors or friends taking the survey. But I am shocked – 71%. They must not have kids in the public schools.
Simon: IVR can’t legally reach cell phones. That’s a pretty unreliable way to do a poll in Newton. It would push much older. Certainly might have worked 20 years ago. And it doesn’t explain your outliers like Bruce C mentioned.
I’m not sure I’m going to vote for Fuller, just interested in statistics and election polling. Don’t see how your poll works, but maybe I’m missing something.
I also don’t think Mayor Fuller is 70% popular. But she’ll be harder to unseat than folks think. Voters have short memories.
PMI says: “We use various caller ID numbers in order to obtain more responses.”
That tells me that PMI is part of a widespread problem. If it’s not straightforward about its identity via Caller ID, it should not expect respondents to be straightforward in their survey responses.
I wonder how many Newton voters even know that the mayor sits on the School Committee.
@Gail Spector: I did not know that.
@Fig
Yes, admittedly the survey caught the more senior population. But in elections, it’s the seniors who tend vote! It was a last minute decision to create the website poll. We thought we might catch a different cohort on the website, however I messed up and didn’t think to ask for basic demographics until it was too late.
I share your frustration with NPS. We decided we had no faith in NPS and pulled 2 of our kids out of NPS (1st and 6th grade) and put them into a private school. They have been in full time, with no issues. The eldest was struggling with Math at the beginning of the year, and we are delighted to see she has caught up and is now regularly attaining 95 – 100% now. It was the best decision we made last year. She has excelled.
It will not be long before it is Budget time, and I get the feeling it’s not going to be very pretty.
The 71% rating seems high to me too. Pre-pandemic, Mayor Fuller was fair but unspectacular. No major accomplishments, unless you want to count the acquisition of Webster Woods. Unfortunately the pandemic has exposed her weakness as a leader during crisis.
That said, the Mayor seems to have enough support to make anyone think long and hard about challenging her next time around.
Gail: Can you get their methodology regarding its how they determined who they contacted within the wards?
As a resident of Newton for over 55 years , I thought our worst Mayor was David Cohen ,that is until now, in my opinion Fuller is the absolute worst Mayor this City has ever seen, Caving and disrespecting the Firefighter flag ,and all Firefighters in the Country, forcing a Police Officer to remove a American flag mask, telling Police Chief McDonald to apologize to the Baptist Church and forcing him to retire, raising property taxes during a pandemic ,the construction to Newtonville and West Newton Squares is a JOKE!!! The streets are still a mess, streetlights are too dim, treating employees like second class citizens, put ANYONE with a little common sense and they would do a better job easily… I did not vote for her and NEVER would! I would take David Cohen again first..
Re: Lennon not doing better than Fuller…
I think we would have seen the school situation handled better over the last year. A primary reason why I never supported Fuller when she ran was because of her inexperience with public schools. (Other reasons included the fact that she donated a lot of money to Republicans in the past) She sent her kids to a $$$ private school. That’s disqualifying to me. I never felt like she cared about our school system. She seems checked out.
I think having a mayor who was a product of public schools (NPS in particular) and whose child is in NPS would have been an asset this year. So, I think that at least Scott would have been better for our schools.
The Police Chief , the FF flag ,raising taxes during a pandemic, streets are a mess, West Newton Square and Newtonville Sq is a joke, streetlights are too dim, anyone with some common sense could and would do a better job, morale for City employees is in the toilet,yeah she is great!!
MMQC, on this, we agree. After living through Newton schools, I don’t know how easy it would be to fix them without have lived through them. If anything, having kids in the school system would have been a real advantage. I remember doubting you on this issue in the last mayor’s race. I was wrong, you were right.
I always liked you, figgy 😛
You only like me when I’m wrong. 😉
This survey doesn’t make any sense, if you are only reaching people with land lines the data in inherently skewed. We don’t have a land line but would gladly answer this survey, had I known about it.
The Mayor has done a horrible job managing the city and the schools during the pandemic. Her approach was to shut things down and not think dynamically at all about how to keep some access. Why didn’t she leverage all the experts that live in Newton and build a working group to think about and solve things? Why didn’t she have her Recreation Department figure out how to open the Gath pool this summer? Boston figured it out how to open their pools. Why can’t Newton? Her newsletters are poorly written and self serving. She has on NUMEROUS occasions put things in the PS section that do not belong there. Covid Deaths, where to get meals if you are facing food insecurity, 9/11 memorial information. It is just wrong. We committed to living in Newton, we grew up here and really like Newton. But this year has us questioning why we stay and that is on the Mayor and who she has on her team. It isn’t the teachers or the individual schools. It is City Hall and the Leadership of the School Department.
If Mayor Fuller has 71% (or even close to that) support from the residents of Newton, then I must live in an alternate reality.
As a parent of two children in the NPS, I can say that she literally is directly responsible for the failure of educating the children of Newton for a whole year. She has probably done more harm than any mayor in the city’s recent history. Regardless of where you fall on the spectrum of whether you believe kids should be in school or whether they should be all remote, her lack of utter leadership was unbelievable to watch.
As others have said, she is a member of the School Committee. Also as someone has said, if you watched any of them — particularly from the summer of 2020 to the present, you would see a person who looks disinterested and lacks any ounce of leadership on which direction SHE herself would take on the very important issues for any parent or teacher. As Butthead to Beavis, she let Doug Fleishman and the School Committee flounder with indecision and provided minimal city support to address key issues that could have helped bridge the divide of perceived safety in the schools. Where was testing? Why did she allow DF to override the DESE recommendation and act unilaterally as if he was the head of the department of city’s health department? Why did she NOT ACT on the offers to provide access to testing in schools in August 2020 to allays the fears of teachers, students and parents?
Regarding restaurants. I’m glad that she was proud to inform us in the middle of February that the City will be providing greater access to outdoor dining/seating. A little too late, don’t ya think? How useful would this have been in the summer, early/late fall? She let the restaurants down. Take a look at Waltham was able to accomplish on Moody St.
COVID was the biggest issue that has confronted the city, the country and world. What I have witnessed have been neighboring cities performing better, while Newton and its residents have been left behind. That’s a result of our mayor’s (lack) of leadership.
Not sure why this is even a discussion. 404 out of 63k registered voters is statistically irrelevant. It’s not even 1%.
Add that fact that most people no longer pick up calls from unrecognized numbers due to exhaustion from phishing and scammers, the 71% is about as telling as, “people from state of Wisconsin who dislike cheese, on the third Tuesday of each month, but only when it’s overcast.”
That said, Mayor Fuller will be running and running HARD this Fall. The campaign finance site reveals she has registered 53 donations in 2021 and 208 since Dec 1, 2020. Particularly in 2021, she has received more $500 and $1,000 donations than $100 and $50 (Bernie Sanders she is not) including $1,000 from a VP at Avalon (developers), and $1,000 from someone with her surname from McKinsey (how much has she spent on consultants?)
https://www.ocpf.us/Reports/SearchItems
As Gov Baker’s wife would remind him, a 70% approval rating is just a C. Nothing to brag about when you paid for the poll yourself.
Newton is closely divided in many ways. Fuller defeated Lennon by a tiny amount. Nobody can argue that she’s less popular than she was 4 years ago. If anyone with the right experience ran her hold on the Mayor’s office would be hugely in doubt.
This is all a smokescreen to discourage opponents. I hope that someone ignores the fog and runs. I’ve changed my mind based on more than just the pandemic and the schools, although that’s huge. Just a few hundred others like myself would elect a new Mayor.
@Matt Lai: You are very wrong about 404 voters not being a reliable sample. It’s actually a very strong sample if you assume completely random selection. This is where the often misunderstood “margin of error” comes from. But the assumption of unbiased selection is wrong in most polls (for the reasons you mention and more), particularly ones commissioned by the candidates themselves. The problem is usually in the selection process, not in the number of respondents.
Poor leadership on the schools she sat and said nothing during school Committee meetings and empty spaces where restaurants used to be-no plan for anything but more development. Storefronts are empty now what is the plan to bring businesses to Newton. Someone please run against her.
If a reasonable person runs, they will win. Parents are furious. Small business owners are furious. These people might not normally vote, but they will be motivated to do so this time. Polls don’t capture intensity.
I have supported Mayor Fuller for years. I have donated money to her campaign and have had her signs on my yard. I thought she was well-organized, smart, likeable, and hard-working. I still think so, but for the next election, I will vote for the person who runs against her. I am not alone. She has evidenced herself as not having both the right values and effective leadership. Other cities have protected our businesses better. All comparable cities provided better education.
She has not even admitted the Newton’s failure regarding the schools. If someone runs against her record, the standard defense that she is only one person on the school committee will just reinforce the leadership failure.
These polling numbers are interesting, but I’d be careful about inferring the meaning without a much clearer understanding of the survey and analysis methodology used. Ideally, a survey sample should represent the turnout for a mayoral race in Newton. So, how did they do that? A voter file simply represents every voter registered in Newton. Only a % of these people actually vote, and of those, their voting behavior differs. Was the sample frame defined to include voters who vote in municipal or statewide elections? In presidential or mayoral decision years? We all know that those turnouts are very different.
Once you have your body of voters to poll, how were the respondents selected? Randomly? Alphabetically? By voting frequency? How did they arrive at those numbers from different areas of the city? How did they define wards that constitute the north, south, and middle? Was the sample segmented to have an equal number of voters from these wards? Or, did they collect responses citywide and then assign them to these regions after collection?
To be clear, I am not questioning the integrity or professionalism of the polling firm. Their job is to execute a poll for their client. However, the standard methodology provided only tells us that roughly 70% of respondents drawn from the Newton voting file in some unspecified manner approve of Ruthanne’s performance. That sounds really impressive, but without the details of who that included and how they were selected, who knows what this actually means?
Good to hear from you Bill Brandel!
Good to be heard! 🙂
Can we get a serious candidate to check the veracity of this poll please ?
How about drafting a candidate? Is that possible? Can we gather signatures without the consent of the candidate and put them on the ballot?
My bet (hope) is that a mayoral candidate will emerge soon after next Tuesday’s election. I suspect that a Lucas and Oliver victory will bolster them.
My support for the mayor race would depend who was running. But I’ll note this. It would be a very difficult race for a challenger to win. Timing is everything. If the race was right now, parents are angry, people are frustrated, and there is a lot of passion from new political participants, such as Save Nonantum.
But the Mayor’s race won’t be a special election. It won’t be in the ides of March. It will be in November. Everyone will have access to vaccines in November. It is likely most businesses will be open. The stimulus has passed so the economy will be booming. Assuming the Mayor can figure out how to get kids to school for the fall, much of the parental anger will be a memory.
Voters have VERY short memories. Doesn’t matter if it is a local race or a national race. The anger folks feel now will fade, and the mayor will be the one that led during the crisis. I think you all underestimate how powerful that bump will be.
Readers here will note that I’ve opposed the mayor on major items, and that I’m not a fan about how she handled the schools. But having lived here for a while, I’ve watched how difficult it can be to challenge an incumbent. And I think the Mayor has a strong base of support baked in. My prediction is that if she runs again, she would easily handle any challenger, absent the schools not being in session in September full time.
The polls right now mean nothing except to confirm she has a strong base of support. It doesn’t matter that she is at 70%, it matters that she is not underwater (beneath 50%). Ask any political consultant.