At this point, there should be little debate that single-family-only zoning is a form of systemic racial bias. I’m not going to re-litigate the point here. Read The Color of Law, by Richard Rothstein or watch Rothstein talk to folks in Newton about housing and segregation. Or, go here or here or here.

The question is what, if anything, we should do with this legacy of racism in Newton’s zoning code. One candidate — and his supporters — is trying to make it a problem that another candidate might want to end this form of systemic racial discrimination. I cannot express how deeply frustrating is to to read that a candidate has said, in effect, “Don’t vote for this guy, he wants to eliminate a zoning provision that was designed to segregate and has been successful.” That the first candidate is Black and the second white certainly complicates things. But, it doesn’t make the first candidate immune to criticism.

So, let’s take a look at Tarik Lucas’s argument in support of maintaining single-family-only zoning in the context of an actual property in Newton. The argument: ending single-family-only zoning will only lead to the tearing down of currently affordable homes and the building of more luxury condominiums, like what happened at 121 Arlington St., in Newton Corner. Replacing modest homes with luxury condominiums won’t help solve the problem of housing segregation.

Candidate Lucas’s argument is echoed by John Oliver, who, by his own admission, hasn’t been involved in housing and land-use debates in Newton before running for elected office.* It is also an argument regularly made by City Councilors in the context of zoning reform, most notably by Councilor Pam Wright.

The argument doesn’t hold up. It has as its premise a non-existent limitation. Luxury condominiums are not the only possible alternative to single-family homes and don’t even need to be an alternative. Maddeningly, Candidates Lucas and Oliver are running for the very body — the City Council — who would determine the alternatives to single-family homes. If those alternatives include a variety of housing types, ending exclusionary zoning should lead to greater diversity in Newton neighborhoods. As for the notion that persisting exclusionary zoning will preserve currently affordable homes, it won’t.**

We really need to stop making excuses and erase this particular relic of intentional discrimination in our city.

Very briefly, Newton’s zoning prohibits anything but single-family, detached homes on something like 70% of the lots in the city. This is referred to as exclusionary zoning and, as noted above, it’s widely recognized to be a form of system-racial bias. The cure for exclusionary zoning is to make it legal to build multi-family homes on any lot in the city.*** In an August draft of potential zoning language being considered as part of the Zoning Reform initiative, the city Planning Department wrote the residential sections of the ordinance to allow multi-family housing across the city. The City Council Zoning and Planning Department subsequently took multi-family across the city “off the table” for the remainder of this Council’s term (through 2021).

 | Newton MA News and Politics BlogWhat Candidates Lucas and Oliver say they fear is neatly illustrated by what recently happened at 121 Arlington St., near Bigelow Middle School, where a detached single-family home was converted to two luxury townhomes. The conversion was allowed because the property is located in a zoning district where multi-family homes are allowed by-right under current zoning. But, it illustrates what might happen to a property in a district currently zoned for single-family homes, if multi-family homes are made legal everywhere in Newton.

 

 | Newton MA News and Politics BlogThe house torn down at 121 Arlington St. was just under 2,000 s.f. with 3 bedrooms, one full, and one half-bathroom on a lot just over 10,000 s.f. As a single-family home, 121 Arlington was most recently assessed for $850,900, probably the upper bound on what might be considered “naturally affordable.” Depending on how you do the math, qualifying for a mortgage on $850,000 would require a household income of around $200,000.

 

 | Newton MA News and Politics BlogThis modest single-family home was replaced with two town homes, each more than 3,500 s.f. in size, with four bedrooms and 3 full and 1 half-baths. One unit sold recently for $1.6 million. (The disposition of the second unit is not clear.) Definitely not affordable, by any definition or calculation.

If there were no option to build condominiums, would 121 Arlington St. have remained a modest, naturally affordable home? No chance. The 121 Arlington property would have been a tear-down candidate even if the lot had been zoned single-family-only. In a single-family-only district, an owner of a 10,000 s.f. lot can build a single home of over 4,000 s.f.. Even a single home the same size as either of the 121 Arlington condos — 3,500 s.f. — would reasonably fetch north of $2 million, given the prevailing 30% or so premium for single-family homes over condos.

Any home that would be a tear-down candidate if we eliminated single-family-only zoning is likely a tear-down candidate under current zoning. Ending exclusionary zoning is not a threat to currently “naturally affordable” single-family housing. The artificially constrained supply of homes in Newton is. (Some argue that zoning targeted to reduce teardowns could preserve naturally affordable homes. It wouldn’t. More on that in another post. Coming with video!)

But, and this is the more significant assumption, Candidates Lucas and Oliver — and the like-minded current councilors like Councilor Wright — assume that eliminating exclusionary zoning is all that the City Council could or would do. If the City Council made multi-family housing legal everywhere, they could also impose what are referred to as dimensional controls, which would limit the size of the units in multi-family dwellings in what are now single-family-only districts. So, for instance, a companion to making multi-family homes legal on every lot could be a limit to, say, 1,500 s.f. units in multi-family buildings. One can reasonably argue that a 1,500 s.f. condo in Newton is not going to be cheap, but it would be substantially less expensive than the luxury condos that Candidates Lucas and Oliver warn against … and probably a good 30% cheaper than a 1,500 s.f. detached single-family home. And, Newton needs more 1,500 s.f. homes, a housing option that’s in short supply.

The City Council could write new zoning that would allow enough smaller units to create an incentive to develop multi-family housing. Basically provide a the developer or property owner a meaningful choice between a single 3,000+ s.f. home or multiple sub-1,500 s.f. units. With different zoning, 121 Arlington could have been 4-1,500 s.f. or 5-1,200 s.f. homes in the same sized building.

Again, what’s truly odd about Candidate Lucas and Oliver’s expressed fear of the impact of multi-family housing: they are running to join the body that would and could both make multi-family housing legal and make sure that the resulting units were not too big. (It’s even more odd for the folks who are already on the Council to have that concern.) They could both end exclusionary zoning and prevent luxury townhomes.

This leads to the last part of the argument: that removing the tool of segregation won’t necessarily reduce the segregation we have in Newton. On its face, it’s a weird argument to make: exclusionary zoning has been so successful in its intent to segregate that we have no choice but to maintain it. Fortunately, the answer is to allow a variety of housing types in what are now single-family-only districts. As the Boston Foundation’s 2019 Greater Boston Housing Report Card concludes, adding a variety of housing types is highly correlated to reducing segregation.

Candidates Lucas and Oliver (and the other candidates) could — and should — campaign on ending exclusionary zoning and making it possible to add the kinds of housing types — triplexes, fourplexes, garden apartments, &c. — that would attract more economic and racial diversity to Newton. Instead, Candidate Lucas treats wanting to end exclusionary zoning as a political liability.

Draw your own conclusions.

* Sadly, none of the five candidates in the special election support multi-family housing on every lot in the city. But, only Candidates Lucas and Oliver make the logically flawed argument that ending exclusionary zoning would inevitably lead to additional luxury housing,

** Other folks have made other arguments against ending exclusionary zoning, like the argument that we should only have multi-family housing near transit. I’ll address some of those other issues in another post.

*** Note: making it legal to build multi-family homes by-right everywhere in the city would not make it illegal to maintain, sell, or renovate a detached single-family home or to replace a detached single-family home with a new detached single-family home. It would simply give the property owner the additional choice to build a multi-family building.

*** I use “naturally affordable” or “attainable” to distinguish from “affordable,” which is often thought of only as subsidized housing for households, which is typically limited to households with incomes that are some percentage — usually 100% or less, but sometimes 120% — of the Boston area median income (AMI).