In a recent open-thread comment, data wrangler Jack Prior announced that he has added Newton data to his remarkable COVID-19 forecasting model of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. But in his comment he neglected to include key findings from his analysis, some of which are outlined his COVID-19 analysis blog post

His findings are good news for Newton:

  • Newton is already largely through its infection period and 10 days from now may start to average less than 1 new case per day.
  • Newton has had 675 cases and is forecast to have another 25.
  • Newton has been steadily slowing its growth rate of cases by 9% per day, which is significantly better than Massachusetts’ case growth, which is slowing by 5.9% per day. Newton’s case growth is better than all states except Montana and Hawaii.
  • Newton’s case growth is approaching 0.1%, which was the rate China and South Korea reached when nearly eradicating the virus.

Jack Prior’s forecasting model has lots of dials and sliders to let you select particular geographical regions, time periods, data series, scales, etc. for your own analysis. It constantly grabs the latest data from various sources described in this page of notes, caveats, and source citations.

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