Here’s two excerpts from an article about the study that appeared on the newssite Pacific Standard.
“Our estimates show that, on average, legalizing retail marijuana in Colorado increases housing values by approximately 6 percent, or $15,600 per property,” they write. This amounts to “about 27 percent of the overall price appreciation” during the period they examined (2010 to 2015).”
“Housing values experienced an immediate jump of 3 percent within one quarter after the adoption of retail marijuana laws,” they add. “The effect is largest in populous areas, and strongest among properties in low and middle price tiers (below $500,000).”
However, with increased property values came other problems…
Cheng and his colleagues note that there are costs associated with legalizing pot—the most obvious one being adverse effects on public health. They note that legalization resulted in large increases in marijuana-related emergency-room visits, hospitalizations, and traffic deaths.
This may be the most preposterous pro-pot propaganda you’ve posted here yet. I’m sure that the enormous increase in housing values in Boston since 2016 are due to buyers’ anticipation of the coming housing price increases that will come with pot shops.
So basically Sarah your response to any data that doesn’t meet your narrative is to call it fake news?
Greg- Are you completely crazy? Or is that you will just stop at nothing in your quest to try to justify pot shops? Donald tRump would be proud of your ability to cite junk studies with a straight face to “justify” what you want to achieve
Housing prices increased “due to” pot shops? Come on! What a junk study. All it proves is that a man and his dog have an average of 3 legs…
And if it were so (and, of course, it is not) Newton residents should expect their home real estate tax bills will also go up by 15% because of the supposed increasing in their property values…
Now here are some — but this time real — statistics from Colorado as a result of pot commercialization there since 2012:
-Marijuana-related traffic fatalities increased by 151%
-Marijuana black market exploding
– 6.4 metric tons of unaccounted-for marijuana and over 80,000 black market plants found on federal lands in Colorado
-Alcohol consumption steadily climbed since marijuana commercialization
– Widespread sales of marijuana-consumption devices that avoid detection in schools like vape pens made to look hi-lighters and eyeliner.
-Proliferation of higher and higher THC potency edibles.
-40 little punlicized marijuana recalls due to harmful pesticide and mold contamination
– Increased youth perception of marijuana harmlessness when it permanently harms the developmenting brain through age 26
-Increased likelihood of marijuana-associated opiate use.
The source? US Department of Justice — United States Attorney Troyer
So next time somebody points to Colorado as a “model” of the experience with marijuana commercialization please do believe it. But also know the facts anout what is happening there. It is NOT a happy story.
Studies that don’t even pass the basic common sense test are not worthy of your readers’ time. Are you really expecting a $15k increase in your house next year if pot shops open? Are the people on Court St or Elliot St. expecting it?
A preliminary copy of the paper is available here: https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2017/preliminary/paper/Daf89Et4
This does seem to be a rigorous statistical study, and I don’t see any articles attacking it on the internet.
It mentions that prices increases in the studied communities was over 4x the amount statistically estimated to be due to retail cannibis. It also notes an “early adopter” factor, with many entrepreneur buyers coming in from out of state for the business aspect, and that this impact would be expected to decrease as adoption broadens. It notes that housing supply is inelastic in the short term and thus small increases in demand (from entrepreneurial migrants) can disproportionately raise prices in the short term.
This article seems to provide useful context: https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Will-legal-marijuana-give-home-prices-a-new-high-10599583.php
In particular this realtor quote could be relevant: “About 60% to 70% of my clients are buyers coming in from out of state,” says real estate broker Rona Hason, of Need Room to Grow Realty in the Denver suburb of Lakewood, CO. She specializes in selling homes where buyers can grow their own cannabis.”
Federal Attorney Troyer has a history of playing fast and loose with the facts. Consider what he says about Colorado: Just two of the items here.
1. TROYER CONTENTION: “marijuana related have increased by $151%.
QUESTION OR REJOINDER: How can he possibly know because one of the talking points for opponents has been that there is no current procedure for measuring “intoxication” from marijuana like there is for alcohol.
2. TROYER CONTENTION: “Alcohol consumption (has) steadily climbed since commercialization”.
QUESTION OR REJOINDER: I thought we were talking about marijuana?
@Greg– Just appease these prohibitionists and change the headline of this thread to something fair. How about…
STUDY: IN COLORADO, RETAIL MARIJUANA HAS ENDED CIVILIZATION AS WE KNOW IT.
You did point out that the same article documents adverse public health impacts, including large increases in ER visits and hospitalizations and tracfic fatalities.
So, in fairness, thank you Greg, for pointing that out as well.
I would gladly forego some increase in our already healthy property values to avoid those serious issue and to save innocent lives from needless traffic fatalities. That price in human suffering by families and friends of a traffic victims is way to high a price to pay for the selfish pursuit of profits by pot shop investor$.
Sarah and Abe both dismissed this study as fake news just minutes after I posted it. Hard to imagine they had time actually to read it.
I published and quoted the Pacific Standard story without editorializing. Just sayin.
Certainly Colorado would have attracted new residents since it was the first state to legalize.
Now that 30 states legalize medical and recreational .. i dont believe MA will see any price appreciation due to people moving to legal states
Bob – Greg’s summary of the study notes that is documents increased traffic deaths. So you cannot have it both ways if you want to believe the study.
Increase tracfic deaths (and I’m guessing also an increase in. On-fatal but permanently maiming traffic accidents) are just too high a price to pay for recreational pot and investor profits at the expense of public health even if property values might go up!
Greg – Been there and done that read before. While the study may be new to you, it came out last January.
This looks like a well-controlled study based on a lot of objective data. I was surprised by the results. A statistician could critique it (and the authors themselves point out caveats). But @Sarah and @Abe: what exactly do you think is wrong with the study methodology?
Why would I waste my time reading a study that has no relevance to Newton? Would anyone here pay more to live next to a pot shop? Do we think there are going to be loads of carpet baggers looking to buy houses for grow houses in Newton, driving up prices? Might there have been other, more logical, reasons that prices might have increased in CO during that time period?
@Sarah, the reason to read the study is because a natural experiment was carried out in Colorado that is analogous to what we are now experiencing in Massachusetts. I believe it is better to make decisions based on data than on emotions.
PS @Sarah, one of the reasons the Commonwealth legalized cannabis is to remove market support for unregulated “grow houses”. It is not clear to me why you think allowing retail cannabis in Newton would cause “grow houses” to proliferate. The opposite will occur.
Maybe Greg was just trying to offer a little perspective to those who think that pot shops will decrease home values. Maybe we don’t see an increase in home values from pot shops, but is there any data that shows a measurable decrease?
Also, Greg is doing exactly what he should with the headlines. His role here is to moderate, but also stimulate conversation. The headlines as of late have certainly got people amped up and commenting.
“…criminal organizations are setting up operations in Colorado and buying houses where they can grow marijuana”, said Coffman, the Colorado attorney general. Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2017/07/31/marijuana-black-market/507417001/
No wonder demand for houses goes up, and so do prices.
@Anatoly Kleyman – the story you linked to was about people growing pot on their own in Colorado and selling it in other states. How would opening or not opening regulated stores in newton have any affect on the possibility of that happening here?
As far as I can see it had absolutely nothing to do with recreational marijuana stores in Colorado. What did I miss?
I get it. You don’t like that marijuana has been legalized in MA but that’s not what the upcoming referendum question is about.
Comparing Colorado and Mass. in regards to adult retail cannabis stores is like comparing apples to oranges.
-By 2017, there were more adult marijuana retails shops (169) in Denver than the number of Starbucks and McDonalds combined (111).
-In contrast, as of Sept. 2018, a total of 40 medical cannabis dispensaries had opened in the entire state of Massachusetts because regulations for medical dispensaries here are so strict. Regulations for adult retail cannabis shops will be even more stringent, so the situations in the two states simply don’t compare in any way, shape or form.
-The Healthy Kids Colorado Survey is the local name for Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Youth Risk Behavior Survey. The 2017 survey data show that 4 out of 5 Colorado youth do not use marijuana. The data from the same report show that youth have tried alcohol (59%) and e-cigarettes (44%) by a much larger margin than marijuana (35%).
-Yet in Newton, the issue of alcohol is dismissed. At three separate events, I was told “that train has left the station”. Sorry, but I’m not buying that argument. We have to be concerned about alcohol, cannabis, prescription drug use, and illegal drug use.
In a recent news article, I read that Denver’s population has grown by 100,000 in the last 7 years. The reason for the increase: a more affordable housing stock. The reason for an increase in traffic accidents could be the result of a number of factors, but more people living in the same space sure seems like it might be one of them to me.More people could mean more cars/traffic/accidents/fatalities on roads not built to accommodate such an increase in a short period of time. The use of statistics to prove a point can be misleading at best. Correlation not only does not indicate causation in any case, but using statistics from a state as different from MA as Colorado is as a point of comparison is highly suspect.
Why not focus on what Massachusetts is doing to ensure public safety, effective education for adults and minors, and compliance with state and local laws?
Yes, Jane, let’s focus on Massachusetts —especially on Newton while we are at it.
PUBLIC SAFETY
Is there a field sobriety test for marijuana DUI? NO.
Did the Newton Police Chief testify before the City Council that his professional opinion is that retail recreational pot shops would harm public safety? YES
Did the Newton Fire Chief do so too? YES
Is the head of the Newton Health Department on record as opposing recreational pot shops? YES
Does former Boston Police Commissioner Bill Evans (now Chief of Security at Boston College) oppose recreational pot shops as harmful to public safety? YES. [BTW watch his 30 minute interview on the subject airing on NewTV in an upcoming special edition of Common Ground]
EFFECTIVE DRUG EDUCATION FOR ADULTS AND MINORS:
How many adult education programs have been initiated on this subject here in Newton in the last 6 months? ZERO is how many I have seen.
How much has the Newton School Department increased it’s budget by for enhanced drug education in relation to retail marijuana? ZERO as far as I can tell.
COMPLIANCE WITH REGULATIONS:
Do you, perchance, recall the way Garden Remedies complied with the “appointments only” condition of its RMD Special Permit with the make believe “walk-in appointments” baloney? GIMME A BREAK
When it suited the propot lobby’s purposes at the City Council hearings we heard peons of praise for Colorado as a model example of pot normalization and commercialization. Now that facts are coming to light about the dismal experince there, the propot lobby says let’s not compare apples and oranges.
Having it both ways much, Jane?
@Jerry Reilly – I’d like to remind you that Greg has started this thread in order to tell us about an interesting report that shows housing values grow with marijuana legalization. (BTW, I really appreciate Greg’s shifting to discussing evidence whatever it is.) The story I quoted gives a rational explanation to the otherwise counterintuitive report findings. I was exactly on topic, and that’s what you missed.
The 6% rise in Colorado real estate prices is due to illegal pot growers? Really?
Sorry. I really know better. I really do … but I just can’t resist.
WHAT HAVE YOU BEEN SMOKING?
Abe – You make my case for RFSN: “How many adult education programs have been initiated on this subject here in Newton in the last 6 months? ZERO is how many I have seen.
How much has the Newton School Department increased its budget by for enhanced drug education in relation to retail marijuana? ZERO as far as I can tell.”
The adult retail cannabis shops will pay a 3% impact tax and you’ve names two places where the impact tax could have – umm – an impact. When we talk about increased revenue, we’re really saying increased services. I want these programs in the schools, but as you heard Mayor Fuller say at the last School Committee meeting, the budget is going to be tighter this year and NPS so this is one area where the impact tax designated to provide educational programs for teens and their parents would be an invaluable addition to the budget.
I’ve been clear on my stance about any Newton employee endorsing any political campaign with their position included – it’s inappropriate and should never have happened. Being an employee doesn’t take away one’s right to express an opinion as an individual., But to place one’s position on a any campaign endorsement list crosses boundaries.
Secondly, these NPS employees have no experience dealing with adult cannabis shops. None. They deal with individuals who use drugs bought on the black market.
Finally, if there’s no sobriety test for cannabis, then stop using the statistic that claims an increase in traffic fatalities in Colorado due to legalized cannabis. You repeat it over and over, then admit that there’s no evidence to back the statistic.
The prohibitionists commenting on this thread are losing sight of the face that marijuana has already been legalized here. Whether or not the pot shops open in Newton, people still can legally consume it, grow it, and buy it. If people can’t buy it in Newton, they’ll buy it in a neighboring community. You guys are arguing as if legalization is on the ballot. It’s not. It was, and legalization already won.
Jane – If you really feel that way, tell your School Committee friends to stop advertising that they are members of the school committee with their propot shilling — and take that affiliation for them off your website. And have them stop sending email blasts using mailing lists derived from their public service roles. Unlike them, the Newton Police and Fire Chiefs were called by the City Council to testify to their professional opinions. And while ou are at it, how about a math lesson? The true incremental tax revenues revenues from pot shops here will be modest (decidedly not the $2M figure that Yoe and Reisman have falsely bandied about without noting that the community impact fee is a pure “wash” and can only be received as reimbursement for actual expeditures of costs incurred as a direct impact of hosting pot shops) — and to achieve that level of tax revenues the volume of pot sales would have to be $33M. With pot selling at Garden Remedies at $300/ounce and the customary amount spent at pot shops during a pot shop visit in other states being $25-$50/trip, that means selling 110,000 ounces of pot — or 660,000 pot shops visits. Since Newton residents won’t be consuming all of that pot themselves (only a bit over half of our 85,000 residents even voted to decriminalize and many of them are not indulging themselves — and the resident count includes minors who cannot legally enter the pot shops)— that means LOTS and LOT of visits to our City from out of town to purchase — and predictably some percentage of buyers to consume before driving out. Even if we were to make $600K in incremental tax revenues, that would add just .15% of the City’s $398M budget. That’s not going to free up much to fund the suggestions that have been made for that money of running drug education, funding the City’s pension liability, and paying for full day kindergarten. And the bottom line anyway is — and I’m sure you will agree — that’s not a reasonable “price” to pay for even 1 additional traffic fatality or permanently maiming traffic accident here in Newton.
MMQC – Opt Out has never suggested the re-criminalization of pot use by individuals in their homes, or barring medical marijuana operating in compliance with their Special Permits. But we don’t want to have pot inve$tor$ make their profit$ by making Newton the locus of their pot $hop busine$$e$ and propagating the normalization of recreational pot to our youth.
The Colorado attorney general Coffman said “she’s seeing more and more people moving to Colorado with the plan to grow pot and ship it home”. Everything in the report brought to our attention by Greg is consistent with that pushing demand for houses and consequently their prices up.
This space has become an echo chamber on this issue. No minds are being changed here
Claire, if you can show me a place where minds are being changed, I’ll go there.
Abe – Elected officials are representatives of Newton citizens, elected by those citizens. In that capacity, they should share where they stand on various issues with their constituent and explain the reasons why they have taken a particular position. Every endorsement list includes the names and positions of elected officials as a means of letting people know this information. Another example of a controversial issue where city councilors openly expressed an opinion was the Welcoming City ordinance.
On the other hand, Newton employees have never included their positions on an endorsement list. Being a Newton employee doesn’t mean you give up the right to free speech, but it’s expected that you will use good judgement, and that means not including one’s professional capacity on a political endorsement list. It’s perfectly acceptable to be listed as an individual on an endorsement list, but the professional title should not be included.
Abe-Brookline, Belmont, Watertown, Framingham, Cambridge, Somerville, and Boston will all have adult retail cannabis shops. Three of these communities border Newton, and five others form a chain of communities ( Belmont, Cambridge, Somerville, Watertown, Boston) that share a border with at least one other community in that set. The myth that Newton is going to be the epicenter of retail cannabis is just that – a myth.
@Anatoly: I don’t see your logic. The study compared municipalities in Colorado that did or did not allow retail sales. The phenomenon you mention, home cultivation, is statewide and could not explain such differences at a municipal level.
A general comment not particularly directed at Anatoly: I don’t have strong feelings about this debate. Frankly, I don’t think it will make much of a difference either way. But I lament how so many in our community seem to shun data and make decisions based on emotions and personal anecdotes. I see the same in Village14 threads on the nursing question. When City Council acquired a case of drone phobia back in 2016, it was the same problem, emotions over reason, and I just couldn’t take it. I thought we were an educated city that respects science and math! We’re not behaving like it.
This is getting ridiculous at this point. We’re all very aware that the Chamber is pro-pot. A study that is pro-pot is not Newton news, let’s keep this as a community forum for discourse and dialogue, not just posting whatever fits the poster’s narrative or agenda.
I often wondee how tobacco companies were able to invade and normalize smoking many decades ago…
I suspect the same tactics used today for pot
– hollywood cool factor
– make smoking a social event
– increased tax revenues!
– smoke and cigar rooms. Increased retail revenue!
How many lives were destroyed by big tobacco?
@ Michael Singer: OK. I’m withdrawing my statement about EVERYTHING in the report being consistent with criminals pushing demand for houses up. I forgot that 70 out of 270 Colorado municipalities that allow pot retail don’t represent the whole state, and whether they are more hospitable to home cultivators I don’t know.
Does this mean that Newton, and Massachusetts, are going to be even more unaffordable now? Affordability is already a huge issue in Newton, do we have plans to ameliorate this 6% rise in the cost of housing? How does this affect affordable housing in Newton with everything going up 6%? I find this concerning as now even more people are going to be priced out of this area if we don’t have a plan.
The funny thing about affordable housing….no one is disagreeing that we need this in Newton, but who would be willing to rent or sell their home below market rate? No one.
Who would be willing to accept a tax increase so Newton can fund and build affordable or subsidized housing? No one.
Who wants Newton built a subsidized or affordable housing within a 1/4 mile their home? No one.
In a few weeks, I will be voting “no” to a ban. Not because I’m dying to hit a weed store and roll a fat doobie. Instead, quite the opposite, as we have a 13 yo.
I’ll be voting no, because no matter then number articles, surveys, stats and cautionary tales used, ultimately a vote to ban, is a vote for NIMBY – go buy your weed in Brookline, but not in my backyard.
See you at the polls. This is going to come down to every. last. vote.
mlai5241,
If I follow your line of thinking, we should extend this to other types of stores which are legal in MA
– legal gun store
– A HQ for white supremists
– A store which sells pornography movies & magazines
– An army recruiting base next to each high school
I find the above extremely objectionable, with equal distaste as recreational weed.
These are all legal… there are just some things people deem undesirable.. and they have a right to object and not be bullied or shamed or guilted.
@bugek – you’ve hit the nail on the head with that comment.
The overwhelming motivation of the opt out proponents is that they find marijuana “distasteful” and don’t approve of it. They voted against it in 2016 and they’ll vote against in Nov.
… and yes, they have every right to that opinion and shouldn’t be ridiculed or bullied for it.
That said, they should face up to that opinion and drop many of the bogus arguments that they have been making about traffic. public safety, etc., day care toddlers across rt 9 being impacted, etc.
They just don’t like it and they are entitled to that opinion.
You have equal distaste for white supremacy as recreational weed, bugek??
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/legal-pot-and-car-crashes-yes-theres-a-link/ I just read this online – guess housing prices AND car insurance prices will be going up! Now I am not sure where I stand on this issue – I have been rear ended by a drunk driver and twice by people texting! According to this, things will only get worse.
Mmqc.
Was trying to use an extreme example…
For me personally, i cant stand to be around ppl who smoke tobacco. .. its cool factor creates decades ago. Recreational weed rubs me the same way
@Bugek
I appreciate your reaction to my previous post. Your examples are extreme, and I DIG THAT! Most of all, I appreciate your honestly.
Your objection is not hidden behind arguable data points, and foreshadowing blanket statements like, “our children will all become drug addicts!!”
You don’t like weed and don’t want it sold near your home. I respect that and hope you vote in Nov.