Updated with additional “rules.”
I know you’ve all been checking Village14 feverishly waiting for your chance to prognosticate on tomorrow’s election. You’ve done all you can. The doors are knocked, the flyers distributed, conversations with neighbors had, mailers are out, and it’s Election eve. No matter what you’re advocating for, whether we agree or not, thank you for making our democracy a little more informed.
And see you tomorrow at the polls.
NOW: Who’s going to win? Make predictions for all races. Predict mayoral and charter percentages. Pick the top vote getter in the city.
Mayor: I’m saying it goes to a recount.
Charter: 54%-46% YES-NO
City Council:
Castillo > Leary > Ciccone > Sterman
Greenberg > Cedrone
Albright > Auchincloss > Houston
Kelley > Malakie > Cote
Sharma > Markiewicz
Crossley > Downs > Yates
Noel > Blazar
School Committee:
Ray Canada > Marchi
Albright > Vaghar
Shen > Sandberg (another squeaker)
Miller > Spector
I predict a late night with a couple of contests so close we might see calls for a recount or possibly not be sure until the morning. In particular, I’m wondering how long it might take to count ballots in Ward 4 with a write in.
My other prediction is that neither “side” (as in those who’ve aligned themselves with a slate of candidates paired with the ballot question) will get everything they want.
Finally I predict that after it all, our wonderful city still stands. We will have an excellent mayor either way. There is no charter outcome that can lead to our ultimate demise. Schools will open on Wednesday. We’ll have fireworks on July 4 and Jerry Reilly will continue to pull the wool over someone’s eyes on April 1.
I don’t know how any of this is going to sort out, and I rather suspect that nobody else does either.
My guesses:
Mayor: Lennon by a nose.
Charter: I say “no” wins, also by a nose.
City Council:
Castillo & Leary
Albright & Auchincloss
Kelley & Cote
Sharma
Crossley & Yates
Noel
School Committee:
Ray-Canada
Albright
Shen
Miller
@Bob: You’re right, of course! But the fun is in guessing. Give it a try!
My crystal ball is broken 🙁 🙂
After knocking on too many door, I believe it’s Lennon as your next Mayor.
Newton you won’t be sorry. He LOVES this city.
Yes wins by 400 votes.
Lennon is elected Mayor in a close race.
Yates, Blazar and Cote win re-election.
Shen and Miller win School Committee seats.
If you’re playing the game, go all in. Call the Charter and mayors race by a percentage or number of votes so that we can bestow the coveted Village 14 Crystal Ball trophies when it’s all over.
Further predictions:
At a Friday press conference the new Mayor will announce that Maureen Lemieux will head the transition and will be retained as the Chief Financial Officer of the City.
Contra to Greg, I do think this is going to go predominantly one way or another. That said, I don’t think there’s a particularly strong charter/mayor connection. No probably means Scott. Yes leans Ruthanne. (No/Ruthanne seems a lot less likely than Yes/Scott.)
The charter/councilor links seem stronger. I find it hard to imagine that Yes wins, but more than one or two of Ciccone, Cedrone, Houston, Malakie, Markiewicz, Yates, Blazar win. Likewise, if No wins, I don’t imagine more than one or two of Castillo, Greenberg, Sharma, Downs, Noel win.
Recognizing that these predictions are (at least partially) wishful thinking …
Charter: Yes (61/39)
Mayor: Ruthanne (52/48)
City Council:
Leary > Ciccone > Castillo >>>> Sterman
Greenberg > Cedrone
Auchincloss > Albright >>> Houston
Cote > Kelley >> Malakie
Sharma > Markiewicz
Crossley > Downs > Yates
Noel > Blazar
The three women challenging incumbent men have the toughest races in the city. (Yes, Andreae is going head-to-head against Brian. No way Deb comes even second. I’d be very surprised if Alison doesn’t win, though hers is a little less secure race than Deb’s.) Not only have Andreae, Brenda, and Nicole made a case for themselves, but have they made a case that Brian, Dick, and Jay need to go?
Deb is going to be the top vote getter in the city.
My prediction is the yes side wins by a close margin and the no side leaders gather all the developers and try to hang them in effigy.
President Trump then declares Newton as a combat zone!!!! President Trump then calls Mayor Warren….President Warren and says that President Warren told him what a wonderful job the he(President Trump) has done in coming to the rescue……Huuuuuuge update on Fox at 11pm.
I predict that after the election, Karen Manning and I will recreate our smiles and hugs in Newtonville the other day. The world will not end but whoever becomes Mayor – will have to prepare for an override because – well – we need one.
The charter review question in 2015 passed by 7512-2016 votes. It would be a stunning about face if the voters reject the charter proposal. Despite the large number of NO signs, I’m thinking the new charter will pass, based on the number people that wanted some sort of change two years ago.
My prediction: 55% YES to 45% NO.
Mayor
Scott Lennon by 200 votes
School Committee
Margaret Albright by 4000 votes
Eileen Sandberg
Gail Spector
Kathy Marchi
City Council
Alison Leary and Nicole Castillo, 100 vote margin over Ciccone
Susan Albright and Jake Auchincloss, with 10% margin over Houston
Deb Crossley and Brian Yates, 200 votes over Downs
Richard Blazar by 75 votes
@Steve – there are a lot of us who voted yes for the charter commission and then were blindsided by the decision to eliminate ward councilors. It’s a deal-breaker for me and there seem to be a lot of people who feel the same way.
MAYOR: Fuller over Lennon (54-46)
CHARTER: Yes over No (58-42)
CITY COUNCIL:
(in order of votes received)
Castillo + Ciccone over Leary + Sterman
Albright + Auchincloss over Houston
Kelly + Cote over Malakie
Yates + Crossley over Downs
Greenberg over Cedrone (58-42)
Blazar over Noel (60-40)
SCHOOL COMMITTEE:
Ray-Canada over Marchi (53-47)
Albright over Vaghar (56-44)
Shen over Sandberg (58-42)
Miller over Spector (52-48)
Two predictions:
Ruthanne Fuller will be our Mayor, and Margaret Albright will be the top vote getter in the City.
Steve,
Margaret the top vote getter? Will never happen. Math.
Mayor – Ruthanne Fuller 🙂
Charter – Yes wins (by a whisker)
Lots of great new faces, energy & enthusiasm on the city council & school committee
Alcohol will be consumed tonight by many
The sun will come up tomorrow
We will all have a virtual group hug on V14
Newton will continue to be an awesome community!
I predict that at starting at 8:15 PM Josh Kritzman and I will offer live, insightful commentary on NewTV on the election results as they pour in, including observations like this: https://xkcd.com/1852/
@Meredith – I understand a lot of those YES on charter review votes will flip to NO but my prediction is it will be fewer than the 2500-3000 needed to defeat the proposal.
By the way, predictions are not equal to my choices.
One year ago this week, Donald Trump was elected president. In the weeks and months that followed we saw women across the country decide to step-up politically. We have so many remarkable women running for the first time in Newton. So while, I’m sure this is wishful thinking in some categories, I’ll place all my roulette chips on a female sweep in all categories.
Fuller (6 percent)
Greenburg
Castillo/Leary
Albright (and Auchinclos)
Kelley and Malakie
Sharma
Crossley/Downs
Noel
Ray-Canada
Albright
Spector
Highest vote getter: Danberg, Highest voter getter in a contested contest: Susan Albright
No (2 percent)
Greg,
Read down your list. Got to highest vote-getter. Danberg? Eh, ye haven’t learned anything in over a decade of doing this together? (I have a great track record on highest vote-getter. I’ll reveal my secret after the predictions close.)
But, the No floored me. I just don’t see how all those women win and No prevails. 8:00 cannot come quickly enough.
Ruthanne 51.3%
Scott 48.7%
Charter-
Yes 52.4%
No 47.6%
Given that both mayoral candidates endorse a “yes” vote, it would be stunning if the charter proposal is defeated.
To add to my previous predictions:
Highest vote getter: Becky Walker Grossman
Highest vote getter in a contested race: Susan Albright
@StevenFeinstein: Do I win?
I agree with @ Greg. Looking forward to a balance of power residing with BOTH men & women.
@James Cote – sorry I left off the Ward 3 at-large race.
Cote 5100
Malakie 4700
Kelly 4500
Highest vote getter in a contested race: Margaret Albright with 5900 votes
@Greg
You really think Fuller will win by 6 percentage points? At this point I’m not sure who will win what, other than I am quite confident Deb Crossley and both Albrights will be reelected.
I have terrible shpilkes and keep looking at the clock, in 5-minute intervals.
Greg also thought that Sangiolo might beat Lennon in the preliminary. So if I am not sure about Greg’s guessing abilities. 😛 But, you never know….
Let me get mine in before the wire. In the interests of time, I cribbed from Greg, with my own twist.
Fuller (2 percent)
Greenburg
Castillo/Leary
Albright and Auchincloss (and Huston places 3rd in Ward 2)
Kelley and Cote
Sharma
Crossley/Downs
Noel
Ray-Canada
Albright
Spector
Highest vote getter: Danberg, Highest voter getter in a contested contest: Susan Albright
No (5 percent)
Two Predictions.
Charter 53% No.
Mayor, Fuller 54%
I’ll spare you my theories about how I came up with this.
The only one that matters to me – Charter…
I sadly think YES will win. The high turnout = YES GOTV is working.
I hope I m wrong.
Jeffrey:
We agree on something!
Neil, I really think that is due to the mayor vote. For an election between two great candidates with similar positions on a lot of issues, it really seems to have stirred things up, on this blog and across the city. Lots of folks I know are voting for that.
By the way, I do want to point out that this election has brought out some excellent new posters, and I hope they remain as blog participants. I may not agree with them, but I really enjoy well thought out posts that challenge my assumptions. There are some new posters I’m not huge fans of, but I think the ones that simply posts two lines about their candidate will disappear.
If you cared enough to post a paragraph, please keep posting. I’ll try and call out a few folks after the election, especially on the No side of the ledger.
Predictions are closed.
Historically, the highest vote getter is almost certainly going to be the top vote getter in a contested at-large race. Vote counts for uncontested races are almost always lower. Because voters get two votes to spread over three candidates, at-large candidates always get more votes than school committee or mayor.
Your figness,
Thanks for recognizing the promising newcomers. Ditto.