Make your best guess here. How many people are going to vote on Tuesday (percentage of registered voters)? What’s the vote distribution going to be between the four candidates? Will Ward 5 be the last ward to report votes again? (It happens almost every time. I don’t remember if there’s a reason.)
Winner gets a lifetime subscription to Village 14.
I’ll go first. Here are my predictions:
Warren: 62%
Hess-Mahan: 27%
Sheff: 10%
Sequeira: 1%
Voter turnout: About 6,500 voters, which is just under 12% of registered voters, I believe.
Gail has basically predicted the 2005 primary. That’s probably a fair assessment except that the signatures on Jackie G’s papers are probably more likely to vote (than other signatures) and they will certainly remember her name. Give her at least 5% and those OBVIOUSLY get subtracted from the mayor’s numbers.
Because a PRIMARY vote for Ted is a message to the mayor — i.e., keep to the task, no funny stuff — I’ll give Ted 35%.
Setti 50%
Ted 35%
Tom 10%
Jackie 5%
Just to play along, I’ll say 6,101 votes.
Hoss — Signatures do not equate to a preliminary vote.
You are right though that some people are going to vote for Ted just to scare the the mayor. Otherwise, I would have predicted a higher percentage for Setti. Fifty percent would not be a good outcome for him.
Gail — I gave Ted 500 more votes than you did because 7 of 8 wards have no other reason to go to the pols (other than send a message). You’re of course right on signatures — I am thinking Jackie might have a canvassed with people that know her or are at least in the “senior disenfranchised” mindset. (After all… you gave her just 65 votes!)
It’s also true that some folks are willing to sign anyone’s nomination papers. {That’s largely true for me, and I’ve heard others say the same.}
So, are people more reluctant to make this prediction than I’d thought they’d be, perhaps out of fear that the candidates will take it personally?
I didn’t make a prediction because other than knowing who the two winners will be I have no idea what will happen. I can’t imagine why a single person would seriously think either of the other two candidates are qualified to lead their city. But I’m sure they will each get some votes. There that’s my prediction.
I’m reluctant to make this prediction because I haven’t a clue what the final totals will be, other than expecting Ted and Setti to be the front-runners (not in that order).
I’m voting for Ted. Setti’s traffic experiments may work in SimCity but they don’t work in real life.
Obviously I’m voting for Setti Warren.
I expect a very low turnout (5500: 10% which is typical for a muni prelim) and that most voters will ultimately make their decisions based on the larger issues facing the city.
I am voting for Ted. Predicting a low turnout ( maybe 10%).
Good call Gail.