OK folks, this thread is not about what you want to have happen on Tuesday. This thread is about what you predict will happen on Tuesday.
- Post your predictions here for the final results for each of the three ballot referendum questions, with percent of vote for each question.
- For bonus points, predict the percent of registered voters that will turnout to vote Tuesday.
- And for the wonkiest among us: Which ward will cast the most votes and which ward will cast the fewest?
Is there a prize, you wonder? Of course. Winner gets the satisfaction of being right!
All three pass. Angier by the highest margin, Cabot by the lowest.
Ward 5 has highest vote count, Ward 1 lowest.
All pass, Ward 2 with the highest turnout, Ward 8 with the lowest.
I will go out on a limb and say that 5-4 has the highest precinct turnout in Ward 5.
All three pass – 40% turnout
Two pass. One fails.
Concur with @Terry. I also think turnout will be a little lower than @Jerry’s guess, but not by much.
All three pass, but a close vote. Cabot with the higher margin of the two DE’s.
I expect that all will pass. I’d like none to pass, and would prefer some real fiscal responsibility in government. But, I’m more sympathetic to the Angier and Cabot overrides, and am leaning towards voting for them. At least we get something tangible, with accountability to the state, and not just more fungible money in the till. And the total is not that expensive on a per home basis.
BNF is placing door hangers on the homes of people with children in school (without checking as to whether or not they are registered voters). Could it be any more obvious? What do you think, how likely is it the PTO’s are running the BNF campaign?
It’s supposed to be a nice day on Tuesday, so the 60+ crowd will come out and vote. That doesn’t bode well for the BNF Eldercleansers …
Outcome – Newton’s union members will get raises whether the overrides pass or not. Everyone gets pension! Woo Hoo, the public sector gets to fund the their own retirement as well as those working in the public sector, because it’s in their contracts!
@Janet: Never understood why people suggest that sound political organizing = something evil. So BNF knows who their target voter is and they’re making an effort to make sure they vote. Why exactly is that wrong?
Is MNF placing door hangers on senior citizens’ doors this weekend, or are they just spending their hours complaining about the PTOs on the blog?
@ Greg, everyone already knows where your sentiments lie on this issue (you indicated you were having the BIG O about paying more taxes… or were you faking it like Meg Ryan was in When Harry Met Sally ??).
Your ingratiating ‘tude may be why you were not last publisher standing at Gatehouse Media – New England.
Alas, I am not running the MNF campaign, much to your chagrin! Enjoy your Sunday! :-D
Hahaha Janet. Glad to see you still have a sense of humor. Yes, I’m voting yes-yes-yes but I’m sure the 3Y side knows that I would not hesitate criticizing their organizational efforts, when warranted. (Although truth is they’ve done a really good job on the homestretch).
But you neglected to address my main point, which is what’s wrong with the PTOs types running — or playing a large role running — a campaign in support of our schools?
Am voting y-y-y (even tho i am a fiscal conservative). Setti’s road show was powerful! However, my prediction is that 2 schools will pass, general override won’t. People in Newton will fight to keep excellent school reputation by funding school building improvements, but too many are hurting financially to reach so deep for the general override. Ward 8 will bring out the most voters (generally true over the years). Newton should ask for smaller, more frequent general overrides while tightening its fiscal belt in public. I actually hope I am wrong this time!
Prediction: both DE’s pass and general loses by slim margin.
I am hoping (and voting) for a “two out of three ain’t bad” result — the two school ones pass but the override loses. My guess is that all three will pass.
As an aside, today was the first time I saw a YYY bumper sticker on a car with a sticker price less than $35k or so. It was a nice minivan, mind you, but not the usual expensive SUV I’ve seen them on.
Greg, I’m pleased that Janet took the liberty of finding time to complain about the PTOs on the blog. Otherwise, I would have felt obligated to do so.
At any rate, I feel that my group and I have covered a lot of ground these past few weeks.
@Josh: For a small, fledgling organization that got off to a late start, I give your group a lot of credit for what you’ve been able to do. I particularly give you credit for all the hours and passion you’ve put into this. You’ve been everywhere. Everyone in the city — including the 3Yers — should thank you for your advocacy. We needed to have a debate about these questions — not just rubber stamp them — and you and your group were willing to step up.
But I’d appreciate it if you could tell us what your specific objections to the PTO parents are? Seems to me they were doing exactly the same thing you’ve been doing: Working passionately in support of a position.
I heard over 500 signs went out for the No’s. How many for the Yes’s?
GFols – So you haven’t seen me toodling around town in my Fusion with a YYY sign on it? A great car, BTW.
Jane — No, I’ve missed you in my unscientific review! I’ll be sure to beep if I see you. But only twice, not three times.
Greg, thank you for your compliments. I knew that you would be impressed with the work that my group and I put in to oppose these three property tax increases.
As for the “But I’d appreciate it if you could tell us what your specific objections to the PTO parents are?”. That was Janet who did that. I only delivered my response because so many people thought that I was content to be a “message board warrior” or a liveshot-seeking publicity hound.
I thought that the PTO’s were Tax exempt organizations and as such they were not supposed to support a Political cause or candidate? Isn’t that part of their Tax exempt status? I thought that Individuals can support whatever/whoever they want but not the PTO organization and they cannot use organization resources or funds to do so. And if they do go ahead aren’t they supposed to allow all sides to be heard?
Joanne – I’m not sure if the PTOs are 501(c)-3 non-profits. Even if they are though, they are allowed to do relatively limited advocacy for policy votes (like the overrides). A quick check on the IRS site said that they are not allowed to spend more than 5% of their budgets on those sort of activities. The only activity I’ve seen from PTO’s in this campaign are a few emails so I don’t think there’s any chance of them bumping up against that limit.
There is a much more strict prohibition against campaigning for candidates though.
A PTO cannot support a candidate for elective public office, but it may take a position on a referendum or override question. It cannot use public resources to promote a referendum or override, but it may use its own resources.
@Joshua Norman – You said:
So what exactly do you feel obligated to complain about?
Tricia, I feel obligated to complain that you don’t have a sense of humor, can’t take a joke and that there are people on this thread that couldn’t tell that I was being sarcastic when I made that comment.
But seriously, I also feel obligated to complain that for years Newton taxpayers paid for schools, city buildings, streets and sidewalks but the money was spent elsewhere (on generous pay/benefit packages for government workers and a $191M white elephant high school). I propose we fix the elsewhere and take some of the money we’ve been spending on elsewhere and use it to improve the schools, city buildings, streets and sidewalks. That is what we call Moving Newton Forward with Fiscal Responsibility.
I also feel obligated to complain about the scare tactics and disinformation that the tax hikers have been peddling to sell these three tax hikes
Joshua – I feel obligated to tell you that you’re not funny.
Tricia, I feel obligated to tell you that I don’t care.
I want to say one different thing. The issue of the overrides is serious business. Setti has proven to be untrustworthy, and I wouldn’t give him the general override if I were the voters of Newton.
Some of the way Joshua has expressed himself is crude and insensitive. I don’t like it. He needs to polish himself up a bit if he wants to do this kind of political organization. But, please, voters, don’t make this a referendum on him, just as the override before should not have been a referendum on David Cohen. Vote NO on the general override and give a lot of thought to what the debt exclusion overrides mean to you.
@Greg
As former candidate for public office, a former ballot question campaign manager, and an active member of the Newton Democratic party I am very familiar with how campaigns operate. The PTO’s gotta get behind these overrides – I am not criticizing. I only find it amusing that with their fine tuned machine (manpower, money and moms) they can’t vet out voters from those not registered to vote.
$43,000,000 in additional spending from 2008-2013, and our Mayor wants MORE? How can anyone have the chutzpah to call themselves a fiscal conservative and vote yes on the Question 1? LMAO on that one!
@Barry Cohen – While we disagree on the override I agree with you that this is “serious business” and hope everyone “gives a lot of thought to what the debt exclusion override means to you”.
While the last minute name calling was a bit childish and distracting, I too hope people just get out tomorrow and vote on the issues rather than the personalities. For me, I’ll be voting Yes on all three and urge you to the same.
Whether the overrides pass or not, I do hope that many of the points that the anti-override folks have raised, about ways to continue getting the city budget under control, continue to be discussed …. minus the name calling.
I’m going to return to the original intent of this thread and offer the following predictions:
Question 1 passes by a 12 percent margin
Question 2 passes by a 12 percent margin
Question 3 passes by a 10 percent margin
36 percent of registered voters turnout.
Given that both Angier and Zervas are in Ward 5, I’ll go with the theory that Ward 5 attracts the most voters. Ward 1 will have the total number of votes.
I wish all of us highly opinionated people would just grow some backbone and move on from the childlike insults and childlike reaction to said insults.
Can any of the YES YES YES enthusiasts address the questions below regarding the proposed Newton elementary schools and overall educational costs, posed by Bill Hobbib in today’s Newton Patch?
Janet – I have no first hand knowledge of either of those projects but I just did a quick web search and came up with a$29 million (not $16 million) price for the Burlington school – i.e. a little cheaper and done a few years before Angier.
I have no idea why Cabot will cost $10 million more than Angier but I suspect someone else on this blog probably knows why that’s a much more expensive project.
@Greg – I like the precision (12%, 36%) of your predictions – no wussy round numbers for you ;-)
There’s a problem with Mr. Hobbib’s figures. According to the Boston Globe, Burlington’s elementary school was completed in 2011 and actually cost $29 million:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/regionals/north/2013/02/03/burlington-school-district-eyes-another-building-project/qqUmvFuBnAw3Wz3pvdo6pO/story.html
And the Hingham project, which began in 2008, was $26.6 million at groundbreaking according to the Hingham Wicked Local site: http://www.wickedlocal.com/hingham/news/education/x902825205/Officials-dig-new-elementary-school#axzz2NFTjJLCT
Gerry is that an answer to Bill Hobbib’s question?
Ganet – no that was just correcting a $9 million dollar factual error in his letter. As I said, you’d need someone who knows the details of those projects to answer the question. That wouldn’t be me.
It’s going to rain tomorrow. 26.4% turnout. Ward 5 will come out in force.
OK David, you’re almost halfway there, what will be the results for the three questions?
A fiscal conservative doesn’t have to be blind to the results of poor fiscal management. Before Setti, there was no zero base budgeting. And former Mayor David Cohen had no restraint (either internal from good judgement or external from the State’s fiscal eyes). Most taxpayers are angry that capital improvements (read: maintenance) were not scheduled in a sane manner and that monies were diverted from the infrastructure to the other side of the budget. We kept the classrooms numbers lower by neglecting the roads and buildings. We should either have cut both sides of the budget or gone to the well for smaller, more frequent overrides and left the Taj Mahals to India.
That’s water over the dam and under the bridge! Angier is falling down. Cabot (I haven’t seen it with my own eyes, but believe the claim) is, too! Is that great for drawing young families to settle in Newton? Not ones that believe in the value of public education. Those schools need fixing ASAP. Sadly, now, so do the roads, Fire Headquarters, police ranks, and Zervas. Further, we are pouring 12 million dollars down the toilet each year to the MWRA because our storm water system is so badly deteriorated. Benefits for our public employees eat up 45% of our annual budget. Our 2 1/2% increase/year to our budget doesn’t match our neighbors with equally good schools nearby. They have asked for and have gotten a bigger dollar base along the way. I think 8% is VERY large and that’s why I think our neighbors may vote the general override down. Folks are having pain in their wallets this year. They won’t turn the schools down. If they do, that will be a tidal change in this city and won’t bode well for any of us. A Mayor who can suggest combining two offices in one (Clerk of the Board and Elections Commission) can find more such creative ways to hold on to our dollars and still serve us well. He needs to do more such moves very publicly while asking for the monies we very badly need at a better economic time. Yes, Janet, you can LYAO all you want, but reasonable people can disagree and do not deserve your pitiable, crass and rude responses.
My predictions:
I agree with Greg on turnout but I’ll say 35%. I think about 20,000 people will vote.
Question 1: Wins 54%-46%
Question 2: Wins 60% – 40%
Question 3: Wins 58%-42%
Ward 5 will cast the most votes and Ward 8 will cast the fewest.