Get out your crystal ball, read your tea leaves, and come up with your best prediction of the results for each of the three votes tomorrow.
For questions 1,2,3 tell us which side you think will win and by what percentage.
Election oracles wanted
by Jerry Reilly | Mar 13, 2023 | Newton | 37 comments
Unless there has been a large number of residents who voted early, I think turnout will be low given a winter storm tomorrow which is unfortunate.
@Bruce C – I was going to say the same thing. I never received the mail-in ballot I requested and don’t know if I’ll be able to go out in the storm.
It’s a shame we can’t have snow days for election days.
Also, it is private school vacation week. A lot of families that send their kids to private schools may be out of town. A coincidence?
Public schools have early release. People will be busy picking up and watching their kids. A coincidence?
@Jeffrey Pontiff – my guess is that it’s a coincidence given that people who don’t have kids in private schools wouldn’t be aware of this since (a) it’s not something that coincides with a holiday the way public school vacation weeks do, and (b) it’s not a vacation week for all non-public schools (for example, it’s not for Jewish Day Schools.)
Until someone posted about this, I’d never even heard that there was a specific private school vacation week. At work, everyone knows that Presidents Day means a lot of people with kids will be out for the entire week, but there’s no such wave of parental absences for this week.
I called City Hall Customer Service. They think it will rain tomorrow and school will be in session. IF the election is postponed they will let people know.
My prediction is Question One will be defeated. Residents want better fiscal management.
I believe Questions 2 and 3 will pass. I talk to voters across the City and the vast majority tell me they voted NO on Question 1.
@Peter Karg – would you venture some guesses on percentages so that the game can begin?
@Jerry Reilly – No guesses other than historically Override Elections have been close.
I have talked to a representative number of voters throughout the City and people have been pretty consistent in opposition to Question 1. There seems to be a solid agreement that the City will find 14 m. I have been fairly accurate in calling Municipal Elections and I think Question 1 goes down by a couple of hundred votes.
Arrived at Hyde. Including me – 3 voters when they opened. Of course, early voting has been happening. . . .
1. Fail 38%/62% 2. Pass 51%/49% 3. Pass 55%/45%
I predict all three will pass. The first question by a slim margin (5%?), the other two by larger margins (10%+)
I agree. 2 & 3 will receive enough support from their respective communities in the context of today’s turnout. 1 will also pass, but by a narrow margin. In liberal Newton, this is proportional taxation at its finest.
@ Tim – Question 1 goes down by about 6% and Questions 2 and 3 pass by similar margins.
The pundits will have a field day with their analysis but I believe the voters want great fiscal responsibility and will be sending that message to elected officials.
I really have no idea on the override. I’ll be surprised if the two debt exclusions don’t pass. But not shocked either way.
It is incredibly hard to pass a tax increase in a recession/downturn. I think the Mayor made her case as well as one could. I think it is just hard to raise taxes. I would predict a very close election either way.
I hope as many people as possible vote. The weather won’t be that bad in the morning, and there is no snow until the afternoon.
I’ll be very glad either way once the election is over.
Q#1: Pass by a sliver.
Q#2 and #3: Pass in the 55/45 range.
Given the fearsome weather today, please vote early – whatever your position is on the three questions.
I am not voting early, as I am within walking distance from the polls, and walking will be easier in the snow at the end of the day than in the driving wind and rain.
I don’t have a sense for prediction, as I get bombarded by No and Yes emails and other media, with the only in-between being the long-ago endorsement by the CoC. Perhaps that (no on override, yes on exclusions) squeaks out, which seems to be what people here are predicting so far.
Before the weather, I’d have guessed they all passed, with Q1 only barely (say, 52%) and Q2/3 more easily (call it 58%). I suspect the ‘baseline’ positions are a bit lower on the “yes” side than that for all of them, but the organization in favor and the as-an-outsider-looks-like-a-mess “no” campaign had things moving in that direction. I have no idea how the weather is going to matter (relative voter enthusiasm level, share of early vote, etc.) and nothing would surprise me tonight.
@Jonathan Silwell – My prediction is Question 1 goes down. The more voters I talk with the more that tell me they voted NO.
Basically, residents believe that the City has the funds to make up the 14 m and they want better fiscal management. Voting NO on Question 1 sends that message. Questions 2 and 3 will pass but not by wide margins.
My guess is they all three pass. I would think, if anything, the weather helps the “yes” side–parents with kids in the schools will be heading there to pick up for early release so why not vote at the same time? I also think parents of school-aged kids are more inclined to support the overrides and are more motivated to vote. I’ve run into so many residents without school-aged kids who have no idea/forgot there is an election today, and are ill-informed on the overrides. But, I do wonder what’s next for The Beacon after they do their summary of the override vote?
My wife, daughter and I were voters 529-531 at 3/2, which has a new polling location at Temple Shalom. I think question 1 will lose narrowly, 2 and 3 will pass more comfortably.
I think Question 1 does not pass by. a small margin but the other 2 pass. With Countryside able to get state funding I would think that might have a slightly higher yes vote. Yes as Lauren says parents might be out picking up kids but the percentage of voters with school aged children I believe is around 30%. There are also many parents who are unhappy. There are the yes, yes, yes people and the no, no, no people who are identifiable but I think the more common are the no, yes, yes people which is harder to gauge. My spouse thought since he saw more yes, yes, yes signs that they would all pass but I had to explain that I didn’t think there were any no, yes, yes signs and many people except a certain contingent are likely to keep their nos to themselves. Should be interesting.
@newton highlands mom: yes. :^)
@Newton Highlands Mom – I believe you are correct. I expect Questions 2 and 3 will pass but Question 1 will go down to defeat. Voters are not happy with the current fiscal priorities and I expect that message will be sent.
just walked to franklin school 1:30 pm
the sun was shining thru
was #581 3-3
good grief
who cares what happens
outside 128
wheres don kent when you need him!!!!!!!!!!
ps shelby scott also!!!!!!!!!!
The fact that they only managed two hours of school today because of some light rain should definitely give people confidence to give this group millions in new money.
It’s funny….Newton used to have a reputation for Excellent Schools and Never Closing for Snow/Bad weather. What happened ?
Newton used to have honors classes too.
Craig –
Newton has always called snow days as other nearby communities have. Many communities called for an early release today.
What is it about this city lately? Do you know how devastating the constant negativity and lack of support is to the NPS staff? Do you know how many educators want out because they are sick of the lack of community support?
Do you care?
Back in the 80’s and 90’s they rarely called snow days. It was almost a point of pride.
Back in the good ‘ol days, it didn’t matter how many feet of snow there were. We had to get off our fannies and trudge to school no how many times we slipped, slided or fell down and broke a leg. Oh! How I miss those days.
You just got to love social media.
That is simply inaccurate information.
Craig, Joe Rizza, I invite you to drive around Memorial Spaulding on the hill up Hartman on a light snow day as vehicles are slipping and kids are walking just inches away. I invite you to watch a school bus maneuver within inches of kids riding bikes home or walking on slippery roads. When kids lives are at stake.. what is half a day?
Lastly, it’s a logistics issue too. To save money, we use the same school buses to pick up elem, middle and high school. When it’s snowing, no matter how little, people leaving work early, the resulting gridlock makes it impossible for the buses to be on time. Then you have kids walking home in dark and snow. S
We’ve hardly had any snow days this year and the season is almost over so quit your trolling.
@Craig – You are correct. Another missed call. Certainly, not a No School day not even close.
One of many reasons taxpayers have lost confidence.
I disagree, I think Newton made the right call even though the weather turned out better. Many of our neighboring towns (Watertown, Weston, Wellesley, Waltham) closed early. Storms that are predicted to hit during the day always have to be treated with respect.
The half day was very inconvenient for families, no doubt. Franklin was missing two of its crossing guards as well – perhaps they live in a location that got heavy snow.
I ended up helping to walk people across the crosswalk on Derby St while carrying my “Vote for Franklin!” sign since the police weren’t able to cover it at dismissal.
Mapping dismissal calls to school quality is way too much of a stretch.
Question 1 is going to lose – routinely lagging the other two (as many predicted), and the mayor couldn’t even win her own neighborhood there