Congratulations to all the candidates on the ballot today.
Follow Newton results here. The Globe is providing live updates to the fourth congressional district race here and the Senate race here.
Polls are closed; now we wait
by Gail Spector | Sep 1, 2020 | Newton | 79 comments
It’s looking like Jesse Mermell is going to win Newton.
Win or lose, what does it say about Jake Auchincloss if he can’t win his home town?
Pretty significant margin in Newton, including Jake’s own ward.
Jake’s strategy certainly seemed to be to cede the progressive votes of Newton / Brookline in favor of winning the more conservative south coast. If that’s a winning strategy…I think losing his hometown was just part of the political calculus.
As of now (~10:00pm) it looks like it might not carry the night because the progressive vote was not as fractured as one might have expected.
TBH I much prefer Jake as my councilor…that was the primary driver of my vote. I really would have preferred Leckey, but the more progressive vote was coalescing around Jesse and without ranked choice I figured that was the better bet.
Kennedy has conceded
10:40 PM
1. Jake and Becky both lost Newton (what does that say?)
2. Jesse has to do well in Needham and Wellesley to win. Jake has/will do well in the southern towns.
3. Celts win!!
“Win or lose, what does it say about Jake Auchincloss if he can’t win his home town?”
To be fair, it also says something about Becky Grossman.
Mermell beat both Auchincloss and Grossman in their own wards.
Of course that’s true Gail. My bad. But Councilor Auchincloss also pretty much ran the table on endorsements from his colleagues.
And, they’ve both been excellent city councilors so, one way or another (and at this hour it’s too close to call) we’re fortunate that they will be representing us!
Did Jake and Becky essentially split the moderate vote in Newton? Would one of them have won if the other stepped away?
I think Newton results say more about Newton voters than they do about the candidates.
Maybe it says that endorsements don’t carry a lot of weight in Newton?
My take: Becky and Jake hurt each other more than Ihssane hurt Jesse. And if Zannetos had stepped out before mail-in balloting started, his votes could have widened the Jesse-Jake gap.
I can’t wait to see the amount of $$$ that was spent on the 4th District race.
I agree with Paul on this.
Two strong candidates from Newton. Of course they split the vote. A lot of the South Coast still to come in. Gonna be a close one.
Question: With ranked choice voting, who do folks think would have won?
Jake and Becky split the Newton vote allowing Jesse to carry Newton.
If Jake can carry the more moderate towns in the south coastal towns of the district he will squeak a victory.
This looks very good for Auchincloss, unfortunately.
As of 11:45pm, Mermell has a 1,200 vote lead with 68% of the vote in, but she’s going to lose almost every one of the towns that haven’t reported – there’s a chance she might still win tiny Dover by a hair, but she’ll lose big time in Fall River and the other towns that are still outstanding, especially the redneck Trump strongholds of Rehoboth, Berkley, and Freetown.
I was hoping that Mermell would at least win Sharon, but BDS hurt her there. Anyway, nowhere to go but down for Mermell at this point. The only way she can hang on is if turnout is extremely low in the southern part of the district.
So, outside of Brookline, Newton, Needham, and Wellesley, Auchincloss’ intervention on behalf of Confederate flag waving was a winning strategy for MA-04, and he clearly knew that. Dogwhistle politics are alive and well in Massachusetts.
Jake’s 22.3 hasn’t (22.3) changed in over an hour. Jesse keeps losing ground based on Grossman and Lackey votes
Jake will win many of the towns that haven’t yet reported. I think he pulls a victory in the end.
As of this moment (midnight or so), 9 towns in the SE remain (with a total population of more than 60,000; don’t know how many registered), and Jesse is ahead by 900 votes. Those towns are Jake’s strongholds, so it’s quite likely he’ll win each one by more than 100 votes. If so, he wins.
Looks like whoever wins won’t get more than 25% of the vote. That’s messed up.
Hmm, some towns came in and things have tightened up a little bit, but not conclusively, and a margin of 610 remains with (I think) six towns left.
But there are also mail-in ballots that have not yet been counted. They will decide this thing. Going to sleep. Hasta manana.
it looks as though Alison Leary lost the 10th Middlesex to Lawn, which is disappointing.
398 vote gap with 78.6% of precincts reporting at 1:15 am.
May be heading for a contested result and a recount.
Just to give folks a sense of where the vote actually is at this moment: Nathaniel Rakich from 538 combined all the publicly available data for MA-04. With just Lakeville, part of Needham and part of Norton outstanding, Jake leads Jesse by 1,634 votes.
Link: https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1301029540496633858
Lakeville is now being called by the AP – Auchincloss 446, Mermell 153
CBS has the full results for Norton – Auchincloss 690, Mermell 419 (Source: https://twitter.com/TedNesi/status/1300973825778163717)
This is looking like Jesse would need a miracle unless there’s a lot more votes out there we don’t know about.
Probably the last post of the night, looks like Needham’s votes are in.
Mermell 2462
Auchincloss 1963
Not enough. http://www.needhamma.gov/DocumentCenter/View/21965/2020-State-Primary-Official-Tally-Sheet-1?bidId=
What is wrong with this picture: A Newton City Councilor only wins his ward by 142 votes, loses the city by 934 votes and is poise to potentially by our representative in Washington with less than 25% of the vote?? That is messed up.
@Claire
Why should a single ward in Newton decide who an entire congressional district sends to Washington?
We can agree that this race exposes some “messed up” things about our political system…but this doesn’t feel like one of them.
Newton isn’t the CD4 district. Newton/Brookline isn’t the CD4 district. The Representative has to understand issues facing a broad spectrum of voters from Brookline to Fall River.
This election was an advertisement for rank choice voting. Not one candidate had a chance of getting close to even 30% of the vote.
@ Donald Ross, I did not say or even suggest that a single ward in Newton should decide. I even pointed out the he eked out a win in Ward Two. But he was defeated unequivocally across the city who know him best. The district is clearly a tale of two districts.
I agree with Jane that it is clear we need Rank Choice voting
Based on the districts that haven’t reported yet, it would seem like Jake has this. But, does anyone know if mail-in or absentee ballots are counted yet?
I, frankly, am not sure that it says anything about Jake or Becky that they lost their own cities/wards. People have different considerations when voting for a city counselor or a US House rep or a governor. Baker won Newton with 57% of the vote, and Joe Kennedy (also a Newton resident) who used to win easily in the district and Newton, lost Newton to Markey. Each race is unique. But what is true is that District 4 has a broad spectrum of voters, like Jane said, and you have to work hard to appeal to all of them.
I have looked into research on ranked choice voting, and political scientists don’t really view it as a game changer. I can also see people ranking candidates strategically and not according to their preference (another problem with ranked choice is ballot fatigue – people failing to rank all candidates). We will see I guess – if it’s adopted in MA.
I agree with Paul on his earlier remarks that moderate voters split their votes between Becky and Jake – have seen evidence of that on the ground.
Ed Markey carried every ward and precinct in the City. That’s something I wouldn’t have taken a 100 to 1 bet on just a week ago.
Or that Alan Khazei would run behind both Ihssane Leckey and Natalia Linos.
I don’t know where I stand on ranked choice voting. On the plus side, if we had it, Kathy Winters would almost certainly be on the city council, which I would be enthusiastic about.
My concern is that with ranked choice insiders (often incumbents) and special interest groups will use emails or flyers to recommend an entire ranking list. These groups already have too much sway in crowded elections. Ranked voting compounds their influence.
One advantage of rank choice voting is that it cuts down on negative campaigning because a candidate doesn’t want to risk alienating an opponent’s supporters. This campaign went beyond negative to toxic and my instincts tell me that with rank choice voting, this campaign would have had a distinctly different tone.
Jane, I have read that in Australia, that does have RCV, negative campaigning is alive and well. But who knows how it will play out here. I agree that in this election, negative campaigning was a huge turnoff.
Congrats to Jake on a hard fought win. He will be a fantastic representative and a credit to MA 4.
When the South Coastal towns are tallied Jake will likely be the nominee.
Jake did a great job of connecting with elected officials and securing endorsements in the southern towns.
I’m guessing there are people having conversations this morning about a special election for the Ward 2 councilor at-large seat…
Ranked-choice would have made our lives more difficult, with such a large number of credible candidates to sort through, but it would have made for a fairer process. In such a system, it would have been fascinating to see which way Becky Grossman’s voters would have broken. As perhaps the second-most moderate large block, they would have had a great deal of influence on the outcome.
I don’t read much into the Newton results for MA-04. Ultra-libs went for Jesse Mermell. Others split their vote among many, especially Auchincloss and Grossman. I agree with @Bob Burke, the most surprising Newton result by far was the ease with which Markey obliterated Joe Kennedy.
Great example: There are many people out there seeking representation from someone that they feel will represent their interests. Candidates representing one demographic cannot sell in such a diverse district as MA4. You have to address everyone!
I’m just happy that I will no longer be bombarded with that ridiculous “Jake is a Republican operative” ad. I grew up in the South Coast area and understand why Jake was strong down there. There is a strong democratic presence in that area, but the majority of the democrats are not progressive democrats.
The 4th district has been redistricted twice in the last 40 years. In 1980, and Barney Frank moved to Newton to run after Father Drinan got retired. Then again in 2012. The district was pulled south to Fall River to counter Newton liberal reputation. So towns like Bellingham and Norton May decide this election.
If Jake pulls it out, congratulations to him. I think he will be a terrific representative and I simply do not buy the nonsense I’m seeing this morning (and saw during the campaign) that he’s a Republican in Democratic clothing. He is and will be a conventional Democrat. Perhaps he’s not a progressive, but that’s fine with me. I did not support him (I voted for Becky), but he would have been my second choice.
Here’s what I wonder: For those voters who were anti-Jake, perhaps they should have coalesced around Becky rather than Jesse. Becky ran stronger than Jesse in the southern part of the district, and if those voters broke her way (e.g. giving Becky stronger margins in Brookline and Newton), I think she beats Jake. However, the conventional wisdom in the final days of the campaign was that “Mermentum” would carry Jesse to victory. It looks like that was not to be.
If the anti-Jake wing of the party had broken to Becky, she would be our new Rep this morning, and not Jake.
Becky Grossman cost Mermell the women’s vote and hence the election. I hope she’s proud sending her friend Jake to Washington.
Curious. A Boston Globe email just arrived saying ” the Fourth District race remains too close to call” yet the results in the table in the same email show Jake up by 1000+ votes. Curious why they would consider that “too close to call”.
Here’s a letter the Mermell campaign sent to election clerks in the district and released publicly….
September 2, 2020
Dear Clerks,
Thank you for your service to our community in the work you do every day and, in particular for the hard work you have done to make sure this election is free, safe and fair through the ongoing global pandemic and vastly-changing election rules and procedures.
As you know, we are in the final stages of a spirited campaign for Congress in the Fourth District and, as of this morning based on publicly available data, the race is still too close to call.
The two leading campaigns issued public statements last night that shared a common goal – count all the votes. Since the rules changed so drastically in this election, we think the traditional manner of reporting and analyzing results must be managed carefully. We’re writing to ask that your office publicly share results in several key areas which current public data does not make clear:
What are the current results, including blank ballots, in your community for the 4th District Congressional race?
How many ballots are left to be counted from the mail-in ballots, early voting, absentee voting and ballots left at drop boxes?
How many late ballots do you currently have (i.e. ballots that are in drop boxes, pulled from drop boxes after 8 pm last night and not counted or still coming in via mail today)?
How many provisional ballots are there in your community?
We think the answers to these questions are important before any campaign or media outlet declares a victor in this race. And last night’s experience is demonstrative of why we ask. Media had reported that the Town of Needham was 90 percent counted with 3,776 votes counted. That number stood out to our campaign and others since 9,650 had voted in the last presidential primary election. After midnight, those numbers were updated to include more than 11,000 votes and Jesse Mermell’s lead increased by more than 500 votes. In another community, we were told this morning that there are nearly 200 ballots still uncounted (from overseas, uncounted and provisional ballots).
We are asking that publicly reported data be more robust to ensure the unique manner of voting is also reflected in a unique reporting which ensures the campaigns, the media and the public are confident in the results before any decision is made on further counting requests.
I look forward to speaking with you about this at your earliest convenience and, on behalf of our entire campaign, thank you again for your service to the community.
Katie Prisco-Buxbaum
Campaign Manager
Good thoughts, but unlikely that stressed out town clerks in small towns are going to change any of their practices this morning.
@Gail Spector – I think Newton should save the money and not conduct a special election for Councilor-at-large in Ward 2.
There is no shortage of representation with 23 other City Councilors. Plus the City of Newton (due to COVID-19) has so many other financial challenges at this time. Congratulations to Jake Auchincloss who will represent the District with distinction.
@Peter Karg: As I’m guessing you know, the charter calls for a special election if there’s a vacancy within 15 months of the start of an official’s term.
While I’m not wild about spending the money or effort to run a special election, I don’t think we should disregard the charter.
Peter Karg,
Democracy costs money. Please don’t suggest that we should deny voters representation just to save a few bucks.
I’m surprised more of the candidates didn’t drop out. The ones who did drop out should have done so earlier. But it was a large pool of candidates, running for office is a massive commitment personally and for their supporters and I understand the feeling of being in it to win it.
I give Jake credit for running a well-run campaign. I think folks effort to tag him as a republican backfired. I think he will be a Seth Mouton style democrat, actually probably a bit left of Seth. I’m not sure who would have won in a two person race between him and Jesse, the district is much more complicated that folks on this blog acknowledge (well, most folks).
I’ll leave you with this. House Members never stop running for office. The 2 year term means there is never a honeymoon. You are back raising money and getting your name out in your district immediately. Jake has a two year audition. I’m 100% sure he will be challenged in 2 years. He knows this. Let’s give him a chance and see how he does.
Fig,
No question that Jake ran his campaign well.
Nobody tried to “tag” Jake as a Republican. He was indisputably a guy in a Democratic primary who had, in relatively recent memory, registered as Republican. The effort was to make that an issue. Questions about whether it was effective and what the impact was? Maybe nobody cared. Maybe some thought it was a plus.
If Jake ends up winning, you’re probably right that he’ll be Seth Moulton-like, but smarter. Interesting to see whether he members like he campaigned or more like he’s counciled. My guess is that he’ll vote like a progressive (to mitigate a challenge from the left) and get himself involved in things like foreign policy and the military where he’ll be more centrist.
As for a two-person race, c’mon. Questionable how Becky’s 18.0% vote would split, but seems pretty clear that Linos/Leckey/Zannetos/Cavell 27.6% would break more clearly for Jesse. Jake would only win if combined Khazei/Grossman 27.0% would break more for Jake. Not likely. Give Jake almost all of the anti-BDS Sigel vote (1.6). It’s not that complicated.
Interestingly, Becky was a strong second in all 23 towns Jake appears to have won, except one, Mansfield, where Jesse was second (1068/764/752).
Also, if you combine Brookline’s and Newton’s tilt left with the hometown advantage, Jesse’s wins make some sense. Combined, Jake and Becky got 59.2% of Newton, which looks like hometown diminished by Jess’s being farther left. Brookline, where Jesse is both the hometown and lefty favorite, she got 66.8%.
Fig,
Incumbency is a huge advantage in the next race. For one thing, there’s a huge money flow. Unless he messes up big time, he’ll sail in.
@Gail Spector – Because of the times we are in, the City Council can file a Home Rule Petition with the legislature asking for an exception from this section of the Charter. No one will be disenfranchised because we will still have 23 other City Councilors.
@Peter Karg: There were 24 members on the City Council when the charter was written too. The decision was made then that there should be a special election when there’s a vacancy within 15 months after a new term. The voters of Newton chose to keep that charter. It would be undemocratic to neglect to hold a special election.
If Jake is the winner in November, I hope he steps down from the Council then to give the next person a bit more of a term to serve.
I can’t agree with that @Blueprintbill. If anything, I’d blame Linos or Leckey. Neither of them were ahead in any polling (whereas Grossman was the leader in at least two internal polls). Linos and Leckey siphoned progressive votes from Mermel to the tune of almost 23%. If I were Mermel, I think I’d be most ticked at Linos, who was late to enter the race and never gave any real reason to vote for her over one of the other progressives. She’s an epidemiologist. So what. On policy, she would have voted exactly like Mermel.
Hoping Tarik Lucas returns in that case as a Council candidate. He’d be a great addition to the Council.
I just posted this on Bob Jampol’s thread, but @George and @Blueprint Bill:
I agree that it’s ridiculous that there is a winner with 22% of the vote; particularly when the remainder of the vote was split by candidates with similar (progressive) politics. I would strongly encourage Mermell to consider a write-in campaign for the general election. Not an easy path and rarely successful, but worth a tough two month push. Am guessing she would find quite a lot of support.
@Sean Roche – Jake was a Republican when he worked for Charlie Baker (best Governor in America) even carried Newton by 57% of the vote. Jake won because he was able to connect with the voters and elected officials from the southern cities and towns in the District. Sean, you certainly will not be denied representation if you are minus one City Councilor out of 24 for a short period of time.
It’s a year, Peter, out of two year term. (Maybe 14 months if he steps down after election day.) If we were talking a month or two, sure, but this is different.
From current charter:
“Sec. 2-5. Filling of Vacancies.
(a) Special Election—If there be a vacancy, by failure to elect or otherwise, on the city council within the first 15 calendar months of the term for which councilors are elected, the city council shall forthwith call a special election to fill the vacancy. The election shall be by the voters of the whole city in the case of councilors at large or by the voters entitled to such representation in the case of ward councilors.
“Sec. 8-4. Special Elections.
Special elections to fill the office of councilor, mayor or school committee member as provided in sections 2- 5, 3-10 and 4-6 shall be held within 120 days following the date on which the election is called. Persons elected at the elections shall immediately be sworn and assume their office.”
Maybe Jake will serve as a City Councilor until April – problem solved. He only has to make two formal meetings a month.
@Peter Karg – Look on the bright side, we can soon start a whole new series of Village14 election threads :-)
@Jerry Reilly – Who will challenge Mayor Fuller next year? I’m hearing names already.
@Peter Karg – do tell
@Jerry Reilly – Two of the names mentioned are regular bloggers on Village 14. Not Greg Reibman.
Peter, that would make sense based on some of the posts around here, LOL. I’ve been tempted to ask a few times directly, but I figure everyone needs to own their own story.
For the record, I will NOT be running for mayor. If I’ve nominated I will not serve. If I’m elected I will not remain in town.
But I suggest we draft Jerry Reilly to serve as mayor. I’d vote for Jerry.
JERRY. JERRY. JERRY.
There are very few things you can count on in this life but one thing you can take to the bank is I will NEVER, EVER, NEVER, EVER run for any political office. … though it is nice to know that I would have gotten a vote if I did. Thanks Fig
The skeletons in my closet, need closets for their skeletons :-)
Count me in for Jerry, Fig. That’s two, Jerry. It’s a movement! You would be unpatriotic to resist.
Jake was not running for Congress in just Newton. Having two candidates from Newton played into it as did disgusting lies by by the EMILY’s list group that many bought into. The only way to look at these results is to understand that the congressman from the 4th District represents the entire district and the district has made their choice. It’s not all about Newton when it’s Congress. Jake is going to be an amazing representative for us all and I predict he will be great for America.
So….Rick and Emily aren’t friends?
@Jack Leader. Barney Frank first ran and was elected in 1980 before redistricting from the 1980 census took effect. The State House pols redistricted to what is essentially most of the current district to favor Margaret Heckler who was also an incumbent member of Congress. They despised Barney and assumed, quite logically, that Heckler would knock him off because far more of her old district was included in the new map than Barney’s and these were more conservative communities. Newton and Brookline were the only two municipalities included from Barney’s old district. Unfortunately for Heckler, her campaign stumbled badly while Barney’s effort was high powered and enthusiastic. Barney connected with voters much better than Drinan ever did and the result is history.